Indianapolis v. San Diego – Saturday - January 3 @ 5:00

Indianapolis Offense

To keep it simple, the Colts have been on fire over the last 9 games. They have won all nine including a 23-20 victory over the Chargers. As always, Peyton Manning has been a big part of this streak, winning his third MVP as he continues his march to the Hall of Fame. He has had to be the leader because the Colts offense is last in the league in rushing at 79.6 yards per game. Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne will need to continue their impressive play for the Colts to move into the second round.

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#6 Philadelphia Eagles
Things looked gloomy for the Eagles after a 13-13 tie with the Cincinnati Bengals in week 11. In the end, that tie (and Tampa Bay’s collapse) helped the Eagles leapfrog the three 9-7 teams in the NFC to land the final playoff spot. The funny thing is the Eagles are a good team, and maybe even the best team in the NFL. The Eagles are top five in Yards per Game allowed, Rushing and Passing Yards allowed and Points Allowed per Game. We saw how effective the Eagle defense last week as it slammed the door on the Cowboys with two fumble recovery returns for touchdowns.

OFFENSE:The Eagles rank 9^th in yards per game and 6^th in Passing Yards per Game and Points Scored per Game. However, the Eagles are only 22^nd in the league running the ball. 22^nd!? With Brian Westbrook? The problem is the Eagles line is not a power running line. The Eagles only converted 55% of their 3^rd or 4^th and short opportunities this season, next to last in the league. The passing game success is a testament to the ability of the Eagles coaching staff to create specific mismatches and Donovan McNabb’s execution after the snap. I was listening to KNBR the other day and it was brought up that McNabb was running more than in the past and that has contributed to the overall success of the team. The However, McNabb had his second lowest rushing total of his career, 147 yards, in 2008. His lowest was in 2005, 55 yards, when he only played in nine games due to injury. McNabb’s mobility is not being wasted it’s just being used to avoid sacks and pick up passing yards in the air instead of QB rushing yards on the ground. McNabb is only getting sacked on 4.3% of drop backs which is the sixth best in the league.

DEFENSE: The Eagles rode Jim Johnson’s defense the last month of the season. They only allowed three touchdowns over the last month of the season. With Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown able to play man coverage effectively, Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell are free to ball hawk and support the run when needed. Recovering fumbles is luck, but forcing fumbles is a skill and Dawkins was second in the league this season with six. The strength of the secondary is balanced on the defensive line with Trent Cole and Juqua Parker creating concern for opposing offensive lines. In the middle, Broderick Bunkley and Mike Patterson do a good job of clogging up the running lanes. Jim Johnson is known for his blitzing and Philadelphia is sacking opposing QBs on 8.4% of drop backs, fourth best in the league.

#3 Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings season didn’t start as planned. The team lost three of its first four games including blowing a 15-0 lead at home to the Colts in week two. Minnesota went on to win nine of twelve and locked up the NFC North title with a nice win over the New York Giants last week. It’s no secret that the two weapons the Vikings rely on are its defensive line and its running back.

OFFENSE: On offense, it’s all about Adrian Peterson, your 2008 NFL rushing title holder with 1760 yards. Adrian Peterson has helped the offense get beyond the limitations of its quarterback, Tarvaris Jackson or Gus Frerotte. Peterson’s one blemish was his league leading nine fumbles and you can bet the Eagles are very aware of this stat. At wide receiver, Bernard Berrian has created a downfield threat to keep opposing defenses honest, but has yet to find a groove with Tavaris Jackson. In five games with Jackson as a starter Berrian has 10 receptions for 178 yards and two touchdowns while he has 38 receptions for 786 yards and five touchdowns with Frerotte under center. The hidden playmaker on offense is break out tight end Visanthe Shiancoe(Vi-SAN-tee SHANK-oh) – learn how to pronounce it because you’ll be hearing it a lot over the next few years. The Vikings will run pass plays to isolate Shiancoe in formations designed to trick the defense into guessing run.

DEFENSE: The Vikings are first in rush defense this year because of the Williams Wall. Pat Williams and Kevin Williams clog up multiple offensive linemen, making it tough to run on them and the attention they require frees up Jared Allen to attack the QB. The Vikings are 4^th in the league with 45 sacks and Jared Allen has almost a third of them with 14.5. Opposing offenses are forced to pick a poison. Shifting a blocker to account for Allen often leads to Kevin Williams or Chad Greenway finding a way into the backfield. The Vikings were second in league in stopping power runs (3^rd and 4^thdown short yardage runs) and sixth in the league in stuffs (basically, runs that don’t help you pick up first downs.) The passing defense ranks in the bottom third in the league, but part of that has to do with the Vikings ability to stop the run and teams giving up running the ball and trying to attack them through the air. Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin are both solid cover men with Madieu Williams and Darren Sharper providing adequate pass and rush support. Don’t let the passing stats fool you because the Viking defense is sacking opposing QBs on 9% of drop backs, second best in the league. If you want to attack the Viking through the air, you better protect your quarterback.

Philadelphia-Minnesota Matchup

Vikings on offense: You better believe Jim Johnson is going to blitz Tarvaris Jackson like crazy, from every direction, pretty much the whole game. Brad Childress knows this and will do his best to run misdirections, play actions and screen passes to try and beat the aggressive Eagle rush. Childress will run off tackle a lot to get AP into the open field and to try and slow the Eagle defensive ends. Tarvaris Jackson will need to keep his cool under pressure and take care of the ball while using his legs to improvise when needed. Besides Berrian, the Vikings don’t have a deep threat, so expect a lot of man coverage from Samuel and Brown with Brian Dawkins or Quintin Mikell shadowing Peterson and ripping at the ball on each tackle.

Eagles on offense: The Eagles don’t have a power running game, so don’t expect them to attack the Williams Wall on the ground. I expect draw plays, shovel passes, swings and screens to Westbrook and Buckhalter to confuse and tire out the Viking front seven out. McNabb likes to spread the ball around in the air. During the season the Eagles had only one game with less than seven players catching a pass. I anticipate Andy Reid using a three tiered attack to exploit matchups. Since the Vikings don’t defend the TE well, Brent Celek and LJ Smith will be targeted often as the defense plays Westbrook and Buckhalter short and DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett deep.

Prediction: The Eagles have a lot of positive buzz right now and look to be a tough foe, even on the road. Both defenses are upper echelon type defenses, especially at sacking the QB, but the balanced attack of the Eagle offense and better player at the QB position will be enough for the Eagles to punch their ticket to the Meadowlands next week.
Philadelphia 23 – Minnesota 17

# 5 Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons made all the right moves in the off season and went from 4-12 and scarred by the Michael Vick and Bobby Petrino messes to 11-5 with the Offensive Rookie of the Year at quarterback, the NFL’s second leading rusher, the a receiver in the top four in yards and possible coach of the year candidate.

OFFENSE: The Falcons like to pass down the field then run in the red zone. Michael Turner got 15 of his 17 TDs inside the red zone while Matt Ryan threw about half of his TDs from outside the red zone. Speaking of the Offensive ROY, he should be buying Roddy White a Rolex or a Hummer or something else nice really soon. White accounted for one third of Ryan’s completions, 40% of his passing yards and almost half of his touchdown passes. Michael Turner ended up as the leading ball carrier this season with 376 carries, but he maintained a solid 4.5 yard per carry average. Jerious Norwood is effective when he’s in the back field and can break big plays rushing or catching the ball. Don’t expect to see much TE work unless they are used to keep defenses honest in coverage.

DEFENSE: The Falcon defense played “bend but don’t break” most of the season. Atlanta finished in the bottom half in both passing and rushing yards allowed, but they were 11^th in points allowed. The defense gets pressure on the QB, John Abraham finished third in the league with 16.5 sacks. Abraham’s sack total was a double edge sword. Opposing offenses had significantly greater success running right at Abraham than at any other Falcon defensive lineman. The Atlanta corners are young and often exposed. None of the top four corners on the roster has been in the league for more than 3 seasons. Starting safety Lawyer Milloy hurt his back and missed last week’s game, but plans to play this week. The Falcons linebackers have not played well despite their apparent talent. The two safeties each have more solo tackles than any linebacker. The Falcons defense gives up too many 10+ yard carries, but luckily they play Arizona this round.

#4 Arizona Cardinals
The season started with The Resurrection of Kurt Warner Tour. Warner had seven 300+ yard passing games this season including a stretch of five games in a row. The Cardinals can score points, but the defense also gives up a lot of points. In 11 of 16 games, the Cardinals gave up at least 20 points. The Cardinals finished 4^th in Yards per Game, 2^nd in passing yardage and 3^rd in points per game. The outrageous passing attack camouflaged the last ranked rushing attack and porous pass defense. The Cardinals also played much better at home than they did on the road. Arizona scores 30 ppg at home which makes up for their pedestrian scoring defense at The University of Phoenix stadium which allowing 21 ppg. The numbers are basically reversed on the road (giving up 30 ppg and scoring only 21 ppg).

OFFENSE: Kurt Warner’s rebirth as potential MVP is due to the receiving weapons at his disposal. Three Cardinal wide receivers had more than 75 receptions and 1000 yards. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both had more than 10 touchdowns a piece which accounted for 2/3 of Warner’s total. Warner was able to stay upright at a top ten rate this season and only fumbled twice. The flip side to the impressive air attack was the lack of any sort of rushing attack. The offensive line preformed well below average at creating space in the running game and they weren’t helped by their running backs who lacked break away speed. You won’t see much from the TE in this offense, it’s a three- or four-wide shotgun set most of the time. The over/under in this game is 51.5, for reason.

DEFENSE: The Arizona defense didn’t have a player with more than 5 sacks and the lack of QB pressure exposed the weakness in the secondary. The Cardinals were middle of the pack defending opponents #2 receivers, but in the bottom of the league at defending all other receivers including 28^th against #1 receivers. Teams have been attacking rookie corner Dominique Rodger-Cromartie and it’s tough to say if his stats are representative of his talent or the result of a high volume of passes in his direction. Bertrand Berry and Darnell Dockett are the big dogs on the defensive line, but they are struggling stopping the run this year and as a result Adrian Wilson and Antrel Rolle are forced to make more tackles that should be made by linebackers or linemen.

Atlanta-Arizona Matchup

Falcons on offense: The Falcons love to run up the middle with Michael Turner. They ran 44% of the time up the middle, not reaching over 17% in any other direction. The Cardinals struggle to defend the run up the middle so I expect the Falcons to pound the ball up the middle and follow those runs with throws by Matt Ryan to Roddy White whenever possible. The Falcons will want to get on the board early and then control the clock with Turner after that.

Cardinals on offense: The Cardinals will spread the field and manufacture mismatches on whichever corner they feel like attacking, probably Chevis Jackson or Brent Grimes. The Cardinals like to move Boldin around and get him the ball on crossing patterns close to the line of scrimmage and let him run after the catch. When defenses start cheating up on Boldin, Warner will throw deep passes down the seam to Breaston. They will try an neutralize John Abraham’s pass rush by running off tackle at him and they will also utilize screen and swing passes to his side, probably to JJ Arrington who works well out of the backfield. Larry Fitzgerald is a beast and Atlanta will be spread thin trying to decide who to double and who to leave open.

Prediction: This matchup has all the looks of a shoot out. Both teams have efficient passing attacks, but flawed defenses, especially in the secondary. Arizona plays well at home and will be hosting its first playoff game since…ever. They will need to play from ahead to succeed because they’ll have trouble coming from behind once Atlanta starts playing ball control. Arizona has a shot because its best weapons, the receivers, match up with Atlanta’s greatest weakness, the inexperienced secondary. Each team will want to win the toss and receive to set the tone of the game. It could be a slug fest where the team who throws the last punch wins. In the end, Atlanta’s running game will be too strong for Arizona’s defense and the Falcons will be able to control the clock once they get the lead.
Atlanta 34 – Arizona 30

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I went 2-2 over the weekend, but the two losses were close.


Cal -8 v. Miami. Loss. Cal misses covering by one in a game that Jahvid Best was dominating while Nate Longshore was choking. Longshore started off 0-4 and after Best rushed for 18 yards on two plays Vereen fumbles the ball away. Longshore played better in the second half, but Cal may have been better off running the Wildcat with Best at QB.

Drew Brees over 401.5 yards passsing. Loss. Drew Brees looked bad in the first half against the Panthers and only had about 100 some odd yards passing. The Saints rallied in the second half and Brees fell only 16 yards short of Marino's record. The last play of the game was a long pass that fell incomplete that was easily 20+ yards.

New England -6.5 agaisnt the Bills. Win. When I made this pick, I had checked the weather, but didn't see the 60mph wind gusts on the report on Wednesday. That made me sweat a little as it was 3-0 at halftime. I also forfot what the spread was during the game and thought it was 12 for some reason. Got myself all worked up for nothing.

Baltimore -12.5 against the Jaguars. Win. Baltimore was trailing 7-3 after one quarter and I was a little disheartened until the Ravens scored 21 points in the second and that was that. Piece of cake.


INSA total: 2-2

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49ers: Nice win for the team and Singletary as Singletary was officially named head coach after the game. It was a good win because it seems that the decision to hire Singletary had been made earlier in the week and the rumors of such provided a good deal of distraction from a meaningless week 17 game. We’ll have plenty of time to discuss the future direction of this team, so I’ll stick with what I saw yesterday. The offensive line was playing hard and opening holes. DeShaun Foster doesn’t seem to run very hard for a big back (Carolina fans nod in agreement) even though he had a decent game. Shaun Hill was off in the first half after the initial drive, although that drive was mostly running plays. The defense held Portis to minimal gains after his first score, but had trouble containing Santana Moss. The Redskins were picking on Walt Harris and he should probably move to nickel back next season. Mark Roman continues to disappoint. Two full seasons without creating a turnover is unacceptable for a free safety. Bryant Johnson has played well the last couple games since he’s been healthy, but not better than either Jason Hill or Josh Morgan. Justin Smith did everything, pressured Jason Campbell, played the run well and tipped a pass or two. The 49ers have defended TEs well all year, but Chris Cooley had a pretty good game. You have to love the 1:30 drill Hill ran at the end of the game to set up the winning FG. The 49ers are the only team to score more than 25 points against the Redskins all season.

Raiders: Huge win for the Raiders and for the Eagles. Tampa’s defense has fallen off of late, coinciding with D-Coor Monte Kiffin announcing he was leaving after the season to join his son’s staff at Tennessee. Michael Bush made the case that he is a running back and not a full back. Johnnie Lee Higgins might be something. I don’t think he’s a top tier guy, at all, but he’s got speed and moves and that’s always dangerous. I don’t know if Cable is the guy for the head coaching job. Al Davis complicates things because he runs his franchise like no other owner, but Oakland showed yesterday that they are closer to competing than we were led to believe at the beginning of the season.
Sharks: The Sharks have problems with the Blues. I’m not sure why, it’s probably just one of those things like why Luther Head only goes buck wild against the Warriors. Nabby had a great game against the Blues, but I think they ran out of gas in the OT. The Sharks were very active at the end of the third, but looked a little slow in overtime. When the game went to a shootout, the Sharks didn’t look comfortable. The game was on the road and the Sharks still earned a point, so it’s not all bad. Tonight they play another team they’ve struggled against in the past, the Dallas Stars. It’s a tough stretch for the Sharks as they go to Minnesota after Dallas, come home for a game versus the Islanders then back to the road versus Calgary and Edmonton.

Warriors: They beat the World Champion Boston Celtics!! It’s all turning around!! It’s going to be okay!!! Nope. The Warriors caught the Celts after a back to back at the end of a road trip. It was still a good win, no doubt, but it’s going to be just a flash in the pan. Toronto visits tonight before the Warriors hit the road again and will have played 7 of 9 on the road. Just read Kawakami’s blog saying StackJack talked to Baron and Baron wants to come back. Too late. The Warriors are already screwed and it’ll probably cost Bellinelli, Randolph or Wright to get rid one of their other bad contracts. Worst of all, it won’t help in the win column at all.

Giants: They singed Randy Johnson to a one year deal. Good move. I hope he’s a good mentor to Cain and Lincecum. He’s only five wins shy of 300, so that’ll be a nice milestone to celebrate. Any excuse to party, right?

A's: Nothing to report. I would write about something if there was something, you have to believe me.

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Last second picks for the degenerate gamblers out there.

 Well, folks, when you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time

New England -6.5 @ Buffalo

New England has to win to make the playoffs, have scored 40+ points the last two weeks and Buffalo has a bottom ten pass defense.


Jacksonville @ Baltimore -12.5
Baltimore controls their playoff destiny. A win and they're in. Jacksonville's season has been over for a while and they face the number one defense on the road.


Drew Brees passes for more than 401.5 yards, breaking Marino's record. The Saints have flown the white flag. They put Reggie Bush on the IR when they still had an outside shot at the playoffs. Getting Brees the passing record would be a great motivator for the other players, not just the offense, but the defense too. 402 yards passing is a ton of yards against a good defense, but Brees at home is definitely capable.

Bay Area pick:
Cal -8 v. Miami in Emerald Bowl
A de facto home game for the Bears at AT&T park. Miami is traveling across the country and has suspended 5 players for this game including the starting quarterback. Cal is averaging 183 yards rushing per game (29th) while Miami is allowing 146 yards rushing.

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Coach Singletary had his weekly press conference yesterday and reading over the transcript you can see why players respond to him. From Dan Brown's Hot Read blog:

Q: What did you think was going on? Did you have an idea of what was going on in your mind?

“Sometimes when you get in a situation, you’re just not playing well, you just aren’t playing in sync and as a coach, you can be on the sideline but you can’t feel it and I think you have to be in that huddle to see it and feel it and once you are on that sideline, no one can convey it better than the quarterback, no one can. So I said what I had to say and got the heck out of the way and let him[Hill] take it and let him direct them, the only way the quarterback can do it and let it take place.”

I think this quote outlines what a former player can bring to the head coach position. Singletary knows what it's like on the field and he knows as a coach he doesn't have the same feel for the game anymore. He knows who the leader on the field is, the quarterback. I can't say if Nolan feels the same, but I know that the Nolan-Smith rift was very damaging to the overall success of the team. Singletary hasn't treated his QBs with kid gloves, either. He benched JTO after less than a half and came close to benching Shaun Hill last game. Singletary's feel for the game is much better than Nolan's was and his instincts are paying dividends.

Q: Do you respect him more because he said, ‘Keep me in here,’ than if he had just listened to you and said, ‘Okay, I had a bad day…’

“Body language tells you a lot and I don’t really, it’s not so much, it really doesn’t matter what a guy says, I mean, everything is in a guy’s eyes. Everything is in his posture when he comes off the sidelines and when you look at a player, whether it’s a corner that just got beat for a touchdown, he comes off and he’s grabbing his ham[string], well is his ham[string] hurt or is his heart hurt? Is his confidence hurt? So when I looked at him and he said what he said, everything was there that said, ‘I really can get this done. You can trust me to go back out there and get this done.’ And that is what the body language said and I said, ‘You know what, okay, fine, you got it,’ and I told Coach Martz he’s going back in and let’s go with it.”

Singletary assessed his QBs body language and made the decision to stick with him the same way he made decisions when he was playing linebacker for the Bears. Singletary is read and react coaching and it's working. The last sentence from the quote above says a lot, too.

"...I told Coach Martz he’s going back in and let’s go with it."

There is no mistaking who is calling the shots on this team. Mike Singletary has a Hall of Fame background in defense, but he's not ignorant of the offense. He knows this is his team and he's going to run it as such. Martz may be his offensive coordinator, but Singletary will make the final call. Players respond to him. Fans respond to him. Even reporters respond to him. If Singletary wins on Sunday, he'll be the first 49ers head coach with a winning record since Mariucci in 2002. I mentioned it yesterday, but it would also move Singletqary to 3-1 after December 1st. Even Nolan, who had a reputation of winning some meaningless games late in the season, never won more than 2 games after December 1st.

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49ers:Christmas came early for the 49ers. For three quarters, Shaun Hill was feeling the Christmas Spirit and giving the ball away. Hill was almost rewarded for his generosity with a benching, but he promised the coach he still had more to give. He rallied the team and found his stride. He turned a forgetful homecoming for Isaac Bruce into a magnificent multiple milestone memory. Hill connected with Isaac Bruce for a touchdown to bring the 49ers within six points of the Rams with 4:06 left in the game. It was Bruce's 1000th career catch, the fifth player in NFL history to reach the 1000 catch mark. The defense seemed energized, even though they had been on the field almost twice as long as their counterparts. After two Steven Jackson runs, the Rams faced a 3rd and five. Bulger tried to find Holt on a quick out, but Nate Clements made a great play to knock the ball down. The 49ers needed to go 67 yards in 2:27 to pull out the victory. On first down, Hill is sacked by Pisa Tinoisamoa, two minute warning. The 49ers need 76 yards to win. After a Ram neutral zone infraction penalty, Hill hits Bruce for eight yards moving Bruce into second all time in receiving yards. Yes, second all time. Although he's 8,000 yards behind Jerry Rice. Hill finds Bryant Johnson for a first down and then The Play. Shaun Hill heaved the pass from the St. Louis 48 yard line and I didn't know what to expect. His earlier deep passes were ugly and poorly thrown and often intercepted. This pass was as ugly as any Shaun Hill deep ball, but well placed and Josh Morgan made a great leaping catch in front of teammate Jason Hill. Touchdown, Niners??? Wow.

You can say what you want about December victories for teams not going anywhere. After all, Nolan had a habit of performing well(for him) when the games didn't matter anymore. This game meant a whole lot. For one thing, this was a game that the 49ers were expected to win, on the road. Walt Harris summed it up:

If we would have lost, it would have been a big step back.

An ugly win? Yes. Did Mike Nolan have similar December wins? Yes. Is there a difference? Yes. Nolan was 2-3 in each December as head coach and his best December was, ironically, in 2005, his first season when the team gave up only 21.5 points a game. Singletary's teams is giving up only 14.5 points a game in December and under 10 points if you go back one game into November. On the season, the 2008 Singletarys are giving up 10 points a game less than the 2008 Nolans. That's not counting the Seattle game against either coach the week Nolan was out and Singletary was in. Maybe it's as simple as how Singletary speaks that makes me feel this is different. When Singletary speaks, his words make sense and what he says is beliveable. The fact is, if the Niners beat a Washington team at home who has nothing to play for, Singletary will be 3-1 in December and Nolan never did that.

Sharks: Sure, the 6-0 drubbing from the Champion Red Wings last week wasn't pretty. You don't want to lose like that to a team you may have to meet in the playoffs. You don't want to lose any mental edges and a 6-0 thrashing is unnerving. However, it was on the road, the second night if a back to back after losing the night before in overtime. The Sharks have some injuries and they weren't going to keep up "Best Start In History" pace the whole season, so a blip or two is to be expected. They came home and beat the Atlantic leading New York Rangers on Saturday and get a restful Christmas week at home.

Warriors: I can't watch this team right now. It's too depressing. Great, they beat the Bobcats. Jamal Crawford scored 50 points. Yay. Crawford and Turiaf tied with a team high 5 assists a piece. The Warriors only had 18 assists as a team, with Crawford and Turiaf accounting for 10 of them. That's abysmal. The Warriors need a distributor and have a bunch of bad contracts so they will have to overpay someone to get a "real" point guard and give up Wright or Randolph or both on top of it. It's funny how life works, especially for Warriors fans.

Raiders: Wish I could write about how the Raiders looked, but the game was blacked out.

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