According to Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic, Kurt Warner has agreed to stay with the Cardinals. Matt Maiocco notes that the Cardinals added $9 million in guarantees over their previous offer, cynics take note.

Jim Trotter of SI.com bashed the 49ers for even courting Warner and linked it to a trend of poor decisions since McCloughan came aboard in 2005. In fairness to McCloughan, I don't know how much drafting he was doing and how much was Mike Nolan. I think Joe Staley is an impact player and not on the bubble. I also take issue with the following paragraph:

They overpaid for QB Alex Smith after selecting him No. 1 overall in 2005 and are still paying a price for that mistake. Ditto free agency. They overspent for offensive tackle Jonas Jennings, cornerback Nate Clements and defensive end/outside linebacker Justin Smith, and they tried to overspend on Warner, based on the numbers his camp has put out.

Overpaid for Alex Smith? How do you not overpay when picking a QB #1? Plus, they wanted to trade that pick! When Smith was making progress in 2007 a 300+ lb. Seahawk landed on his shoulder and his head coach emasculated him to the media. I agree they overpaid for Jonas Jennings. Nate Clements, though? Sure, he was the highest paid CB last year when he got his signing bonus, but this year he was 8th. Seems reasonable to me. Calling Justin Smith overpaid based on one year is also retarded. Going by total salary he was the 4th highest paid DE last season, but he had an $11 million signing bonus and counted only $3 million against the cap. Next year he'll count $10 mil against the cap. Julius Peppers will count $17 mil when he signs his franchise tender. I'd say Justin Smith is at least worth $7 mil less than Peppers. The rest of his contract Smith counts between $6 and $9 million against the cap, which seams reasonable.

Talking contracts in football is somewhat ridiculous. Albert Haynesworth just signed a 7 year $115 million dollar contract. Do you think he's going to play the life of it? No way. Mike Lombardi said on the BS Report on Monday that it's basically a 4-year $48 million dollar contract with most of it being guaranteed and the fifth year will be a huge cap hit that will let Haynesworth return to free agency. Remember when teh Titans wouldn't let Steve McNair practice because they would have been hit with a $24 million cap figure? NFL teams draw up crazy contracts so players can get the guaranteed money they want. Getting back to "overpaid" Nate Clements, he signed an 8 year $80 million dollar contract, but years 7 & 8 call for $36 million. Clements will either restructure those years or be cut, meaning the "real" value of the contract was 6 years for $44 million.

Don't throw around "overpaid" in the NFL without using evidence to back it up.

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The Road to Tampa:
The NFC West champs beat Atlanta (+66 scoring diff.) to earn the franchise’s first home playoff victory in 60 years. Experts wrote off the win to rookie-QB-on-the-road-itis and said Atlanta didn’t really have a good defense, anyways. Next, the Cardinals went to Carolina (+85 scoring diff.) and pounced on the Panthers, breaking Jake Delhomme’s career in the process. This victory was also written off to Delhomme’s poor performance and again, Carolina didn’t really have that good a defense. The Cardinals hosted the Eagles (+127 scoring diff.) for the NFC Championship. The game was over in the second quarter, but the refs muffed a kickoff call that would have given the Cardinals the ball inside the Eagles 30 with a 21-6 lead. Sure, the Eagles made a miraculous comeback to take the lead, but the Cardinals closed the deal at the end of the game. This game was written off to the Eagles not covering Larry Fitzgerald and a 4th down non-PI call on incidental contact. The bottom line is, the Cardinals have beaten three good teams to get to the Super Bowl…and they will beat the Steelers.

How it goes down:

Steelers on offense: Hines Ward will be playing, if at all, with a brace on his knee. The Steelers offensive line is made up of turnstiles and there are rumors this week that Big Ben’s back is aching. The Cardinals defense has already contained three better running backs than Willie Parker (Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Brian Westbrook) this post season. Rodgers-Cromartie and Aaron Francisco can cover Santonio Holmes, while Rod Hood blankets a gimpy Ward. Clancy Pedergast (remember that name if your team needs a new head coach in a couple years) will concoct a scheme that contains Willie “Sometimes I am Fast” Parker and puts Big Ben on his back. Byron Leftwich, anyone?

Cardinals on offense: This is going to be tough for the Cardinals offense. Todd Haley, Arizona’s offensive coordinator, is hotter than steam and could be headed to Kansa City after this game to coach the Chiefs. He will have the offense ready for the pressure the Steelers will bring. Remember when everyone said stopping Larry Fitzgerald is the key to shutting down the Cardinals offense? Remember when Anquan Boldin went all T.O. during the NFC Championship? Anquan Boldin will get the ball a lot in the first quarter on Sunday. I would not be surprised to see him run, catch and throw the ball all in the first 15 minutes – prop bet? When the Steelers have to honor Boldin over the middle and Larry Fitzgerald deep, Edgerrin James will get some cheap yards running delays and draw plays. Kurt Warner’s quick release will keep him upright long enough to find the open receiver. Last, but not least, Ike Taylor cannot cover Larry Fitzgerald.

Prediction
Oh, NO! If the Cardinals win the Super Bowl, the NFL regular season no longer means anything! The non-Best regular season teams aren’t supposed to win so many championships! Woe is me! It’s the apocalypse!
The Reality is that if the Cardinals win, it means its sports. In sports anything can happen, that’s why we love sports. “Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Sports! Bart gets to ride upfront because he’s good at sports.” The Arizona Cardinals’ strength on offense (passing game) is the Steelers defense’s weakness (not really a weakness, but not as awesome as the rush defense). The Cardinals can basically abandon the weakest part of their offense (running game) early and force the Steelers’ offense to beat them.

Super Bowl Champion Arizona Cardinals. Get used to it.

Arizona 24 – Pittsburgh 17

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RT is 5-0 against the spread in the playoffs so I would listen to him

It could not have been much easier for the Steelers in the playoffs. They did not have to play the Colts or the Titans and both of their games were at home. Unlike their road to victory in Super Bowl XL, which required three straight road games, the Steelers barely had to break a sweat this time around. The only real news to speak of was the injury to Super Bowl XL MVP Hines Ward but he is still going to play on Sunday. The Steelers playoff run has been nothing short of a walk in the park but on Sunday they will face their toughest test.

Nope.

How is it going to go down?

The Cardinals on Offense: At this point, we all know the story of the playoffs for the Cardinals. Larry Fitzgerald. Sure, Edgerrin James cares again and Tim Hightower is running with a purpose but it begins and ends with Larry Fitzgerald. He has been nothing short of unstoppable in the playoffs and he has set the tone early in all three games. So what happens if he gets shut down early? The Cardinals are in big trouble. The Steelers have been as good as it gets on defense throughout the season and into the post season. Dick LeBeau will come up with a new scheme to shut down Fitzgerald. Kurt Warner has enjoyed the luxury of just throwing the ball into double coverage and having Fitzgerald make an incredibly difficult catch. Once that “play” is no longer available, the Cardinals will be forced to go to the ground. Once the Cardinals are grounded, they are finished.

The Steelers on Offense: The Steelers offense is good enough to win. Unfortunately, that’s the best compliment I can come up with. In addition, the offensive line struggles to keep Ben Roethlisberger upright. Hines Ward is a great possession receiver and blocker but is far from a sexy playmaker and Santonio Holmes is a serviceable deep threat at best. You never know which Willie Parker is going to show up – the one that ran all over the Chargers or the one that seemed content to fall down anytime Ray Lewis came near him.

How can the Steelers offense be expected to score enough points to win? Simple. The Cardinals defense is mediocre at best. They beat the Falcons at home with a rookie quarterback, the Panthers with a gun-slinging quarterback who was shooting blanks and the Eagles with a one legged Brian Westbrook. Big Ben will need to pull a Delhomme (you have to love that as a term for a quarterback who blows his team’s chances of going to the Super Bowl single-handedly) for the Cardinals to even have a chance. The Steelers will play a wonderful game of keep away and provide the defense with the rest they need to shut down the Cardinals.

Prediction

Anyone looking for the Cardinals to be this year’s Giants might want to reevaluate their grip on reality. Big upsets don’t happen very often and to think they happen in back to back years is just wishful thinking. The fact of the matter is that the Steelers have a better defense and an offense that stays on the field long enough to keep the ball away from the Cardinals’ offense. Furthermore, the Steelers are a much better team than any of the teams the Cardinals have faced up to this point in the playoffs. The Steelers win an uneventful and downright boring Super Bowl.

Trivia Question during the post-game on Sunday

Question: What Super Bowl Champion had the easiest road to the World Championship?

Answer: 2008 Steelers

Steelers 27 - Cardinals 14

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Two nine win teams will be squaring off for the NFC Championship Sunday. The Eagles stats belie their record as they finished as the #1 team in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings (Ravens #2) as the best team in football. They have gone on the road and battled through two tough defenses and now face the best offensive team left in the playoffs. The Cardinals were considered unworthy of a playoff spot by many football fans and writers. While the offense continues to play at a high level, the defense has turned into Mr. Hyde during the playoffs. Arizona is a home dog for this game and has been feeding off the “chip-on-the-shoulder” mantra since season’s end.

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles defense beat the Giants last week. The defensive line stopped the Giant’s short yardage rushing attack at crucial times and their first touchdown was set up by Asanate Samuel’s INT return inside the five yard line. The Eagle defense, Samuel especially, will have to continue their high level of play because Kurt Warner is not Eli Manning and he’s definitely not Tarvaris Jackson.

Offense - There hasn’t been much to say about the Eagles offense in the Playoffs. McNabb has been decent, but not outstanding over the last two weeks. DeSean Jackson was okay against the Giants, but nonexistent against Minnesota. The engine that drives the Eagles offense, Brian Westbrook, has been in vapor lock this post season. He has the game clinching screen pass touchdown against the Vikings, and nothing else. Based on the regular season, playing the Cardinals defense should be the equivalent of a slumping hitter going to Coors Field in the middle of summer. The Cardinal defense the last two weeks is not the same one that we saw during the regular season. The Eagles offensive line has been doing a good job protecting McNabb from the rush, but is not doing a good job of creating running lanes for Westbrook.Defense - The Eagles’ defense is hitting on all cylinders right now. Asante Samuel is playing at his best, as usual, in the post season. Samuel and Sheldon Brown’s ability to cover man to man frees up Jim Johnson to call a variety of blitzes to disrupt the opposition’s offense. Broderick Bunkley and Mike Patterson lock down the line of scrimmage, allowing Trent Cole and Juqua Parker to aggressively rush the edges while the linebackers are free to chase the ball and make tackles.

#4 Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals went to Carolina and quickly gave up a touchdown to the Panthers and then punted on their first offensive possession. The game looked to be unfolding just as everyone who bet money on the Panthers – 9.5 thought it would. The next drive the Cardinals defense got on track and forced a three and out. Without Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald somehow ran free and the Cardinals tied it up a few plays later. The next play after the kickoff, the Antonio Smith stripped Jake Delhomme inside the 20 and Arizona scored two plays later. Five Jake Delhomme INTs later, the Cardinals are hosting the NFC Championship.

Offense – You can say all you want about the Cardinals running the ball more and that’s why they are being successful, but it’s still the passing game that is winning the games for them. Larry Ftizgerald was a beast without fellow Pro Bowler Boldin on the field last week. What I will say about the Cardinals rushing attack is that they have been better in the red zone and Hightower had some nice runs last week, but that was after the game was decided. Edgerrin has always been good at pass protecting and I expect him to do a lot of it on Sunday.

Defense – The Cardinals had a turnover margin of zero in the regular season.. During the post season they are +7 and have scored 39 of their 63 post season points off of turnovers. Darnell Docket, Bertrand Berry and Antonio Smith have played at a high level on the defensive line and the linebackers and secondary have taken advantage. Rookie cornerback Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie has played especially well given that opposing offenses are targeting him to try an exploit his rookie naiveté. The Cardinals stuffed Michael Turner and jumped on the Panthers early to silence their rushing attack. No doubt that stopping Brian Westbrook will be the focus of the defensive game plan this week.

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NFL Playoff thoughts

Baltimore v. Tennessee
Sure, Baltimore has a great defense, but Tennessee gave that game away. Let's do a quarter by quarter breakdown of all the Titans breakdowns.
1Q: After looking good holding Baltimore to two three and outs the Titans score first and hold the Ravens to a 3rd and 18. Then defensive offsides on Vanden Bosch pushes it to 3rd and 13. No biggie, except on the next play it looks like Chris Hope is supposed to have the deep third coverage, but is late getting over and gives up the 48 yard touchdown.
2Q: Tennessee has another nice drive into Baltimore territory, but it stalls when a screen to Bo Scaife is sniffed out by Raven safety Leonhard for a five yard loss to make it 4th and 8 at the Baltimore 30. Because of the wind conditions Jeff Fisher elects to go for it and Collins fumbles the snap. 4th and 8 isn't close to guaranteed against the Ravens, but you have to give yourself a chance. The next Titans possession starts at their own one yard line and they move the ball all the way to the Baltimore 32 and face a 3rd and 8. The Ravens blitz and Collins throws up a duck that is easily intercepted. Collins is a seasoned veteran, but looked like the rookie all game when the Ravens bring more than four pass rushers. The Titans hold the Ravens to three and out and get the ball back and in seven plays are already inside the Raven 22 yard line with 36 seconds before halftime. LenDale White earns five hard yards, but doesn't protect the ball when he's in a wash of defenders and the ball pops loose and Baltimore recovers.
3Q: Both teams are playing great defense after the half, each team forcing three punts. The Titans get to the 28 yard line on one drive, but the Ravens challenge a third down catch by Scaife and the ruling is reversed forcing a 51 yard FG attempt instead of a 46 yard try. Bironas misses to the left. 51 yard FGs are not gimmes in any sense, but you have to make those in the playoffs if you want to move on.
4Q: After the Ravens take the lead with a FG, the Titans put together a ten play drive and Collins completes a pass to Alge Crumpler on 2nd and 9 from the Baltimore 13. Crumpler gains seven before he's hit and the ball goes flying forwards, recovered at the one by Baltimore. Again, the contact was coming, but the ball wasn't protected. The Titans hold the Ravens on the next drive and comeback and tie the game with a FG afterwards. When Baltimore gets the ball back, they face a 3rd and 2 on their own 32 yard line when the now infamous play clock reaches zero and no flag is thrown. The amount of leeway that NFL fans are used to allows for a split second after the play clock reaches zero to get a play off, but this was almost a full second.

The Ravens earned the victory, but Tennessee did more than enough to help them out. Both fumbles had more to do with carelessness than with defensive pressure. Joe Flacco the rookie had more pocket presence than 15+ year veteran Kerry Collins. Tennessee lost its best offensive player, Chris Johnson, for the entire second half because of an ankle injury and they got burned by an officiating blunder. What lesson can be learned from this? Don't let your team peak too early in the season. Tennessee was the last unbeaten team this year and then fell off a little, even though they ended with the best record in the NFL. They didn't "play" in week 17 and then they looked sloppy after the bye week.

Arizona @ Carolina
The surest bet around had to be Carolina -9.5 at home against the a Cardinal team that was 0-5 on the east coast this season and 2-22 in it's last twenty four games played in the eastern time zone who was missing a key cog in the offensive attack, Anquan Boldin. Carolina even came out and scored rather easily on the first drive in five plays. Unfortunately, the Panthers could not cover Larry Fitzgerald and Jake Delhomme might have had the worst playoff quarterback performance of all time. It was extra ironic for Delhomme because on Sunday NFL Countdown on ESPN, I think it was Bob Holtzman said Delhomme came into the game as third all time in playoff QB rating after Joe Montana and somebody else. Later on the same show Cris Carter repeated the stat, but didn't give Holtzman(or whoever said it originally) credit like he had come up with it himself. Delhomme had six(!) turnovers including five INTs. Delhomme had a playoff passer rating of approximately 104.5 before this game and it dropped over twenty points after this game to 83.3.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
This game was all about the Eagles defensive line. The Giants defense played great as well, holding Westbrook to 36 yards on 18 carries and only two catches for ten yards, but the Ealges and Broderick Bunkley in particular won this game for Philly. It was windy at the Meadowlands and John Carney, who missed only two 40+ yard FGs all year, missed two in this game. The windy conditions and the Giants power run game led Tom Coughlin to go for it on fourth ans short three times, but the Giants only converted the once in the first quarter. Not counting the intentional grounding by McNabb in his own endzone for a safety, neither team had a sack this game. Two great defenses, both teams like to blitz and both are in the top ten in number of sacks this season had zero this game. The Giants had zero sacks against the Eagles in three games this year. Clap it up for the Eagles offensive line.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Every team that scored first this weekend ended up losing. Three of the four teams scored touchdowns first. San Diego connects on a long bomb to DUI Jackson and then force a Pittsburgh punt. After giving the ball to Darren Sproles three times the Chargers give the ball to last week's MVP, punter Mike Scifres. Unfortunately, the Charger punt coverage was hideous, with four men bunched on the left side of the field and the five others spread too far apart on the the other side of the field. Naanee had a chance to push Holmes out of bounds, but instead dove at his ankles like a punter/kicker/quarterback and Hollmes hurdled him easily. The key to this game was San Diego's inability to get pressure on Roethlisberger and the Steeler offensive line to protect Big Ben. Only one sack for the Chargers, by the safety Weddle, while the Steelers got four sacks from Woodley, Harrison and Keisel, all DL/LBs.

Sharks
Despite some people panicking because the Sharks aren't leading the other NHL teams by 10+ points, they beat the Oilers and Canucks on back to back nights on the road. Now the Sharks have four home games spread out over the next week before the All Star break.

Warriors
I hate this team. Not because they are losing and will continue to lose. It's because the team is symbolic of what the Warriors were just three short season ago and the previous decade before that, irrelevant with no hope for the future. Ellis is unhappy. Maggette sucks. He can get to the line, but he can't pass, at all. Bellinelli looks promising. Randolph looks promising. Wright looked promising before separating his shoulder. Will any of them flourish with the Warriors? Most likely not because Robert Rowell and Nellie mucked everything up when their egos got in the way. Warriors basketball, it's a great time out.

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#6 Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles defense beat the Vikings last week. While the Eagles only sacked Tarvaris Jackson once, he felt the pressure. Jackson completed just 43% of his passes for a pitiful 4.7 yards per attempt. The Eagles also played the run extremely well. Sure they gave up a 40 yard run to AP, but he only had 43 yards on his other 19 carries. The Eagles will need a similar defensive performance to succeed against the Giants this week.

Offense – The Eagles struggled to run the ball last week, but should be marginally more successful this week versus the Giants top ten rush defense. The Eagles did a good job of finding an open Brent Celek, who was the leading receiver against Minnesota. I expect more of the same this week because the Giants pass defense is weakest against defending the TE. Brian Westbrook is the game changer on offense, despite the publicity McNabb receives for his performance. Westbrook was targeted five times in the passing game last week, catching three passes for 83 yards including the 71 yard game clinching screen pass. Look for the Eagles to send Jackson deep, throw the ball to Celek in the middle, and give the ball to Westbrook early and often.

Defense – The Eagles stopped the Viking rushing attack, for the most part, last week. They’ll have an even greater challenge this week versus the number one rush offense in the league. Saying Eli Manning is less mobile than Tarvaris Jackson is an understatement to be sure, so I expect more sacks this week for the Eagles. Brian Dawkins is the Ed Reed of the NFC. He won’t have to worry about Plaxico Burress and will focus on stopping the run, blitzing Manning and creating turnovers.

#1 New York Giants

The Giants earned the number one seed and home field advantage with the best running game in the NFL and a top ten defense. Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward provided an excellent one-two punch behind the best offensive line in football. The Giants defensive line has played extremely well and has put a good deal on opposing quarterbacks despite losing Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury all season. Establishing a consistent rushing attack and containing Brian Westbrook will be the keys to victory.

Offense – Brandon Jacobs got nicked up at the end of the season, but has been able to rest for a couple weeks and should be ready to roll all over the Eagles. Derrick Ward comes in on passing downs and does his best Brian Westbrook impression when he gets the ball. The loss of Plaxico Burress severely hurts the offense in the playoffs. Burress provided a deep threat that required safety help. Domenik Hixon has had good games here and there, but has struggled to be consistent and will have a tough time against the Philly corners. TE Kevin Boss started the season slow, but has become more involved in the game plan during the second half of the season.

Defense – Justin Tuck leads the defensive attack from defensive end and he’s been aided by Mathias Kiwanuka and the improved play of Jay Alford and Fred Robbins. Corey Webster has proven to be an effective corner while Aaron Ross has been the corner that the opposition has chosen to attack. The Giants have problems covering the TE, but are still top ten in defending the pass.

Eagles on offense – The Eagles will have the same attack plan as they did versus the Vikings. They will try and get Westbrook matched up with the Giants linebackers in the passing game. The Giants linebackers are good, but they aren’t fast enough to keep up with Westbrook. I expect another 20+ touches for Westbrook and probably 10+ for Buckhalter, who is as healthy as he has been all season. The Eagles will feed Westbrook to draw the Giants safeties up before throwing the ball down the field to DeSean Jackson. The Eagles bring in Buckhalter a lot on passing downs because he’s a good pass blocker, but he’s also effective on draws and screens. McNabb will be under fire for a lot of the game and he’ll need to move around and keep plays alive while Tra Thomas and John Runyan try and block Justin Tuck. Like last week, I predict a “big” game for TE Brent Celek as the Giants defense has a lot of other responsibilities to worry about.

Giants on Offense- The battle in the trenches will be the key to victory. The Giants line will need to move the Eagles defensive tackles and slow the end rushers. The Giants want to use Jacobs pounding running style to challenge the Philly linebackers to tackle him all game. After the linebackers get tired of Jacobs, Ward comes in and uses his quickness to evade tacklers and break long runs. The Giants will want to stay away from obvious passing situations where Jim Johnson can go blitz happy without worrying about safety help deep. I expect a trick play or two from the Giants as they try and take advantage of the aggressive Philly defense. TE Kevin Boss should play an integral part in the passing game as Manning’s safety valve and should see some targets in the red zone.

Prediction- I really like how the Eagles are playing right now. They only lost by five at home when the Giants had Burress and beat the Giants at the Meadowlands a mere five weeks ago. Playing Minnesota was a nice tune up for the Giants as both teams have similar rushing attacks and defensive pressure. The Giants will need to win by getting pressure on McNabb and using the running game to control the pace of the game. The Eagles are playing real well. McNabb is playing well. Westbrook is always a play away from breaking the game open and the defense is in lock down mode. Eagles upset the Super Bowl champs.

Philadelphia 20 Giants 17

#4 Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals scored on a long flea flicker pass, a disrupted handoff fumble return and a short crossing pass to Boldin who somehow managed to stay inbounds as he sprinted down the sideline and they only won by six points. The Cardinals defensive line played outstanding, Betrand Berry in particular, and we’ll see if they can repeat the performance on the road where the Cardinals have been horrendous. Arizona’s only road victories came against the three NFC West teams and lost at Carolina earlier this season. To add insult to injury, Anquan Boldin may not play due to a sore hamstring and the Cardinals will need him to beat the Panthers.

Offense- Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the NFC and it’s a virtual draw between him and Andre Johnson for best wide receiver in the NFL. When Boldin is playing, the Cardinals like to work him underneath with Breaston and Fitzgerald working the deeper routes. This worked to perfection against the Falcons when Boldin caught a short pass and took it 71 yards for a score and Fitzgerald caught a 42 yard toss up over two Falcons in the end zone. Edgerrin James was surprisingly effective against a bad Falcons defense, but how will he do versus a better Panther defense? Arizona needs James to play up to his contract this game to have a shot.

Defense- The Cardinals defense turned up the pressure against Atlanta and got three sacks and two interceptions plus a fumbled handoff return for a touch down. Bertrand Berry anchors the mediocre at best defensive line. Berry’s line mate Darnell Dockett was M.I.A. last game and Arizona needs him to be a presence in this game. Adrian Wilson is a strong hitting safety who should see a lot of action this weekend. Karlos Dansby and Gerald Hayes are effective ILBs that will be kept busy all day with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is the rookie corner who has shown tremendous potential, but is still a rookie whom Carolina will likely test. If anybody’s got the speed to keep up with Steve Smith, it’s Rodgers-Cromartie.

#2 Carolina Panthers

Carolina had a shot at home field throughout the playoffs, but fell six points short in New York in week 15. The Panthers were 8-0 at home this season and have been remarkably consistent all year. Carolina has a power running game with the highest percentage of runs of more than 10 yards in the league. The Panthers had the second least amount of “stuffs” (define stuffs for those of us who are unclear on what he is talking about) and converted 80% of 3^rd or 4^th downs with two yards or less. In the playoffs, those are the types of plays that need to be made and Carolina will have plenty of confidence coming into this game.

Offense – I covered the rushing stats above, but DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were both excellent running backs this year. Williams had an unbelievable year with 18 rushing touchdowns including two games with four a piece. Stewart was no slouch either, rushing for 10 touchdowns himself, more than Portis, Chris Johnson or Brian Westbrook. Steve Smith might have topped both backs by having the third most receiving yards in the NFL (only ten behind Fitzgerald) despite playing in only 14 games! Smith has a knack for catching deep passes in clutch situations. Pick your poison Cardinals, who will you try to stop?

Defense – The defense was not as good as you’d think for such a highly touted team. Carolina was in the bottom half in Yards per Game, Passing Yards per Game and Rushing Yards per Game. They can get after the quarterback, however and the main man is Julius Peppers. The Panthers also have a beast in the middle in Jon Beason, the east coast version of Patrick Willis - a tackling machine. Ken Lucas and Chris Gamble are solid cornerbacks who will have their hands full, especially if Boldin plays. Unfortunately, Carolina may be missing both its starting nose tackles to injury. Fortunately, the Cardinals are not a running team, even if they wanted to be.

Cardinals on offense – The Cardinals don’t have much choice. They are a passing team and that’s all they are. Even if Boldin is out they will bring in Jerheme Urban and keep throwing. Frankly, it’s for the best. It’s the playoffs so don’t waste your time trying to be something you are not. Put Warner back in the shotgun and spread the offense. Levi Brown will have his hands full with Julius Peppers and his results will be a referendum on his high draft status.

Carolina on offense – Carolina is going to run the ball, with several Steve Smith targets mixed in. Williams and Stewart will put pressure on the Cardinals linebackers and Adrian Wilson to come up and make tackles. DeAngelo Williams was tied with Steve Slaton for most 40+ yard runs this season and second behind AP for most 20+ yard runs. Williams was 4^th in the NFL in first down runs with 24% of his runs reaching a first down. Bryan Robinson and Darnell Dockett will have their hands full trying to stop the Williams and Stewart combo. Once Carolina has established that they are going to pound the rock, Steve Smith will work some magic on the rookie corner and get behind the defense.

Prediction – Magic Eightball, will the Panthers obliterate the Cardinals this weekend? “All signs point to Yes.” I don’t see any way the Cardinals can win this game. They only lost by four in October, but Carolina has hit its stride the last few weeks, especially in the running game. Plus, the Cardinals haven’t shown they can win on the road. Boldin is a must play for the Cardinals to have a chance. Big day for Williams. Big day for Steve Smith.

Carolina 34- Arizona 17

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#6 Philadelphia Eagles
Things looked gloomy for the Eagles after a 13-13 tie with the Cincinnati Bengals in week 11. In the end, that tie (and Tampa Bay’s collapse) helped the Eagles leapfrog the three 9-7 teams in the NFC to land the final playoff spot. The funny thing is the Eagles are a good team, and maybe even the best team in the NFL. The Eagles are top five in Yards per Game allowed, Rushing and Passing Yards allowed and Points Allowed per Game. We saw how effective the Eagle defense last week as it slammed the door on the Cowboys with two fumble recovery returns for touchdowns.

OFFENSE:The Eagles rank 9^th in yards per game and 6^th in Passing Yards per Game and Points Scored per Game. However, the Eagles are only 22^nd in the league running the ball. 22^nd!? With Brian Westbrook? The problem is the Eagles line is not a power running line. The Eagles only converted 55% of their 3^rd or 4^th and short opportunities this season, next to last in the league. The passing game success is a testament to the ability of the Eagles coaching staff to create specific mismatches and Donovan McNabb’s execution after the snap. I was listening to KNBR the other day and it was brought up that McNabb was running more than in the past and that has contributed to the overall success of the team. The However, McNabb had his second lowest rushing total of his career, 147 yards, in 2008. His lowest was in 2005, 55 yards, when he only played in nine games due to injury. McNabb’s mobility is not being wasted it’s just being used to avoid sacks and pick up passing yards in the air instead of QB rushing yards on the ground. McNabb is only getting sacked on 4.3% of drop backs which is the sixth best in the league.

DEFENSE: The Eagles rode Jim Johnson’s defense the last month of the season. They only allowed three touchdowns over the last month of the season. With Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown able to play man coverage effectively, Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell are free to ball hawk and support the run when needed. Recovering fumbles is luck, but forcing fumbles is a skill and Dawkins was second in the league this season with six. The strength of the secondary is balanced on the defensive line with Trent Cole and Juqua Parker creating concern for opposing offensive lines. In the middle, Broderick Bunkley and Mike Patterson do a good job of clogging up the running lanes. Jim Johnson is known for his blitzing and Philadelphia is sacking opposing QBs on 8.4% of drop backs, fourth best in the league.

#3 Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings season didn’t start as planned. The team lost three of its first four games including blowing a 15-0 lead at home to the Colts in week two. Minnesota went on to win nine of twelve and locked up the NFC North title with a nice win over the New York Giants last week. It’s no secret that the two weapons the Vikings rely on are its defensive line and its running back.

OFFENSE: On offense, it’s all about Adrian Peterson, your 2008 NFL rushing title holder with 1760 yards. Adrian Peterson has helped the offense get beyond the limitations of its quarterback, Tarvaris Jackson or Gus Frerotte. Peterson’s one blemish was his league leading nine fumbles and you can bet the Eagles are very aware of this stat. At wide receiver, Bernard Berrian has created a downfield threat to keep opposing defenses honest, but has yet to find a groove with Tavaris Jackson. In five games with Jackson as a starter Berrian has 10 receptions for 178 yards and two touchdowns while he has 38 receptions for 786 yards and five touchdowns with Frerotte under center. The hidden playmaker on offense is break out tight end Visanthe Shiancoe(Vi-SAN-tee SHANK-oh) – learn how to pronounce it because you’ll be hearing it a lot over the next few years. The Vikings will run pass plays to isolate Shiancoe in formations designed to trick the defense into guessing run.

DEFENSE: The Vikings are first in rush defense this year because of the Williams Wall. Pat Williams and Kevin Williams clog up multiple offensive linemen, making it tough to run on them and the attention they require frees up Jared Allen to attack the QB. The Vikings are 4^th in the league with 45 sacks and Jared Allen has almost a third of them with 14.5. Opposing offenses are forced to pick a poison. Shifting a blocker to account for Allen often leads to Kevin Williams or Chad Greenway finding a way into the backfield. The Vikings were second in league in stopping power runs (3^rd and 4^thdown short yardage runs) and sixth in the league in stuffs (basically, runs that don’t help you pick up first downs.) The passing defense ranks in the bottom third in the league, but part of that has to do with the Vikings ability to stop the run and teams giving up running the ball and trying to attack them through the air. Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin are both solid cover men with Madieu Williams and Darren Sharper providing adequate pass and rush support. Don’t let the passing stats fool you because the Viking defense is sacking opposing QBs on 9% of drop backs, second best in the league. If you want to attack the Viking through the air, you better protect your quarterback.

Philadelphia-Minnesota Matchup

Vikings on offense: You better believe Jim Johnson is going to blitz Tarvaris Jackson like crazy, from every direction, pretty much the whole game. Brad Childress knows this and will do his best to run misdirections, play actions and screen passes to try and beat the aggressive Eagle rush. Childress will run off tackle a lot to get AP into the open field and to try and slow the Eagle defensive ends. Tarvaris Jackson will need to keep his cool under pressure and take care of the ball while using his legs to improvise when needed. Besides Berrian, the Vikings don’t have a deep threat, so expect a lot of man coverage from Samuel and Brown with Brian Dawkins or Quintin Mikell shadowing Peterson and ripping at the ball on each tackle.

Eagles on offense: The Eagles don’t have a power running game, so don’t expect them to attack the Williams Wall on the ground. I expect draw plays, shovel passes, swings and screens to Westbrook and Buckhalter to confuse and tire out the Viking front seven out. McNabb likes to spread the ball around in the air. During the season the Eagles had only one game with less than seven players catching a pass. I anticipate Andy Reid using a three tiered attack to exploit matchups. Since the Vikings don’t defend the TE well, Brent Celek and LJ Smith will be targeted often as the defense plays Westbrook and Buckhalter short and DeSean Jackson and Hank Baskett deep.

Prediction: The Eagles have a lot of positive buzz right now and look to be a tough foe, even on the road. Both defenses are upper echelon type defenses, especially at sacking the QB, but the balanced attack of the Eagle offense and better player at the QB position will be enough for the Eagles to punch their ticket to the Meadowlands next week.
Philadelphia 23 – Minnesota 17

# 5 Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons made all the right moves in the off season and went from 4-12 and scarred by the Michael Vick and Bobby Petrino messes to 11-5 with the Offensive Rookie of the Year at quarterback, the NFL’s second leading rusher, the a receiver in the top four in yards and possible coach of the year candidate.

OFFENSE: The Falcons like to pass down the field then run in the red zone. Michael Turner got 15 of his 17 TDs inside the red zone while Matt Ryan threw about half of his TDs from outside the red zone. Speaking of the Offensive ROY, he should be buying Roddy White a Rolex or a Hummer or something else nice really soon. White accounted for one third of Ryan’s completions, 40% of his passing yards and almost half of his touchdown passes. Michael Turner ended up as the leading ball carrier this season with 376 carries, but he maintained a solid 4.5 yard per carry average. Jerious Norwood is effective when he’s in the back field and can break big plays rushing or catching the ball. Don’t expect to see much TE work unless they are used to keep defenses honest in coverage.

DEFENSE: The Falcon defense played “bend but don’t break” most of the season. Atlanta finished in the bottom half in both passing and rushing yards allowed, but they were 11^th in points allowed. The defense gets pressure on the QB, John Abraham finished third in the league with 16.5 sacks. Abraham’s sack total was a double edge sword. Opposing offenses had significantly greater success running right at Abraham than at any other Falcon defensive lineman. The Atlanta corners are young and often exposed. None of the top four corners on the roster has been in the league for more than 3 seasons. Starting safety Lawyer Milloy hurt his back and missed last week’s game, but plans to play this week. The Falcons linebackers have not played well despite their apparent talent. The two safeties each have more solo tackles than any linebacker. The Falcons defense gives up too many 10+ yard carries, but luckily they play Arizona this round.

#4 Arizona Cardinals
The season started with The Resurrection of Kurt Warner Tour. Warner had seven 300+ yard passing games this season including a stretch of five games in a row. The Cardinals can score points, but the defense also gives up a lot of points. In 11 of 16 games, the Cardinals gave up at least 20 points. The Cardinals finished 4^th in Yards per Game, 2^nd in passing yardage and 3^rd in points per game. The outrageous passing attack camouflaged the last ranked rushing attack and porous pass defense. The Cardinals also played much better at home than they did on the road. Arizona scores 30 ppg at home which makes up for their pedestrian scoring defense at The University of Phoenix stadium which allowing 21 ppg. The numbers are basically reversed on the road (giving up 30 ppg and scoring only 21 ppg).

OFFENSE: Kurt Warner’s rebirth as potential MVP is due to the receiving weapons at his disposal. Three Cardinal wide receivers had more than 75 receptions and 1000 yards. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both had more than 10 touchdowns a piece which accounted for 2/3 of Warner’s total. Warner was able to stay upright at a top ten rate this season and only fumbled twice. The flip side to the impressive air attack was the lack of any sort of rushing attack. The offensive line preformed well below average at creating space in the running game and they weren’t helped by their running backs who lacked break away speed. You won’t see much from the TE in this offense, it’s a three- or four-wide shotgun set most of the time. The over/under in this game is 51.5, for reason.

DEFENSE: The Arizona defense didn’t have a player with more than 5 sacks and the lack of QB pressure exposed the weakness in the secondary. The Cardinals were middle of the pack defending opponents #2 receivers, but in the bottom of the league at defending all other receivers including 28^th against #1 receivers. Teams have been attacking rookie corner Dominique Rodger-Cromartie and it’s tough to say if his stats are representative of his talent or the result of a high volume of passes in his direction. Bertrand Berry and Darnell Dockett are the big dogs on the defensive line, but they are struggling stopping the run this year and as a result Adrian Wilson and Antrel Rolle are forced to make more tackles that should be made by linebackers or linemen.

Atlanta-Arizona Matchup

Falcons on offense: The Falcons love to run up the middle with Michael Turner. They ran 44% of the time up the middle, not reaching over 17% in any other direction. The Cardinals struggle to defend the run up the middle so I expect the Falcons to pound the ball up the middle and follow those runs with throws by Matt Ryan to Roddy White whenever possible. The Falcons will want to get on the board early and then control the clock with Turner after that.

Cardinals on offense: The Cardinals will spread the field and manufacture mismatches on whichever corner they feel like attacking, probably Chevis Jackson or Brent Grimes. The Cardinals like to move Boldin around and get him the ball on crossing patterns close to the line of scrimmage and let him run after the catch. When defenses start cheating up on Boldin, Warner will throw deep passes down the seam to Breaston. They will try an neutralize John Abraham’s pass rush by running off tackle at him and they will also utilize screen and swing passes to his side, probably to JJ Arrington who works well out of the backfield. Larry Fitzgerald is a beast and Atlanta will be spread thin trying to decide who to double and who to leave open.

Prediction: This matchup has all the looks of a shoot out. Both teams have efficient passing attacks, but flawed defenses, especially in the secondary. Arizona plays well at home and will be hosting its first playoff game since…ever. They will need to play from ahead to succeed because they’ll have trouble coming from behind once Atlanta starts playing ball control. Arizona has a shot because its best weapons, the receivers, match up with Atlanta’s greatest weakness, the inexperienced secondary. Each team will want to win the toss and receive to set the tone of the game. It could be a slug fest where the team who throws the last punch wins. In the end, Atlanta’s running game will be too strong for Arizona’s defense and the Falcons will be able to control the clock once they get the lead.
Atlanta 34 – Arizona 30

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