Warner watch ends
Posted On Wednesday, March 4, 2009 at at 3/04/2009 11:27:00 AM by KoskiAccording to Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic, Kurt Warner has agreed to stay with the Cardinals. Matt Maiocco notes that the Cardinals added $9 million in guarantees over their previous offer, cynics take note.
Jim Trotter of SI.com bashed the 49ers for even courting Warner and linked it to a trend of poor decisions since McCloughan came aboard in 2005. In fairness to McCloughan, I don't know how much drafting he was doing and how much was Mike Nolan. I think Joe Staley is an impact player and not on the bubble. I also take issue with the following paragraph:
They overpaid for QB Alex Smith after selecting him No. 1 overall in 2005 and are still paying a price for that mistake. Ditto free agency. They overspent for offensive tackle Jonas Jennings, cornerback Nate Clements and defensive end/outside linebacker Justin Smith, and they tried to overspend on Warner, based on the numbers his camp has put out.
Overpaid for Alex Smith? How do you not overpay when picking a QB #1? Plus, they wanted to trade that pick! When Smith was making progress in 2007 a 300+ lb. Seahawk landed on his shoulder and his head coach emasculated him to the media. I agree they overpaid for Jonas Jennings. Nate Clements, though? Sure, he was the highest paid CB last year when he got his signing bonus, but this year he was 8th. Seems reasonable to me. Calling Justin Smith overpaid based on one year is also retarded. Going by total salary he was the 4th highest paid DE last season, but he had an $11 million signing bonus and counted only $3 million against the cap. Next year he'll count $10 mil against the cap. Julius Peppers will count $17 mil when he signs his franchise tender. I'd say Justin Smith is at least worth $7 mil less than Peppers. The rest of his contract Smith counts between $6 and $9 million against the cap, which seams reasonable.
Talking contracts in football is somewhat ridiculous. Albert Haynesworth just signed a 7 year $115 million dollar contract. Do you think he's going to play the life of it? No way. Mike Lombardi said on the BS Report on Monday that it's basically a 4-year $48 million dollar contract with most of it being guaranteed and the fifth year will be a huge cap hit that will let Haynesworth return to free agency. Remember when teh Titans wouldn't let Steve McNair practice because they would have been hit with a $24 million cap figure? NFL teams draw up crazy contracts so players can get the guaranteed money they want. Getting back to "overpaid" Nate Clements, he signed an 8 year $80 million dollar contract, but years 7 & 8 call for $36 million. Clements will either restructure those years or be cut, meaning the "real" value of the contract was 6 years for $44 million.
Don't throw around "overpaid" in the NFL without using evidence to back it up. Continue Reading
If you're interested in the Kurt Warner watch in 49ersland...
Posted On Monday, March 2, 2009 at at 3/02/2009 12:06:00 PM by KoskiDan Brown and Matt Barrows are staking out 49ers headquarters.
Continue ReadingChecking the Wire 3/2/09
Posted On at at 3/02/2009 08:26:00 AM by KoskiFootball
Kevin Lynch breaks down the 49ers newest singee, Brandon Jones.
Corey Smith, the other NFL player missing on the fishing boat in Florida is an ex-49er.
Nancy Gay rehashes the NFL free agent rush.
Baseball
John Shea previews the US team in the WBC.
Baggs' Sunday notes include praise for the Giants first pick of 2008.
More Sunday Notes: Schulman on the Giants. Stiglich on the A's as well as Susan Slusser.
Gwen Knapp says the government is botching its case v. Barry Bonds.
Basketball
MTII's blog entry from after Friday's game was spot on. At least Randolph played last night.
Steinmetz says Nellie is a tough spot dealing with Stack Jack's minutes.
The Warriors aren't afraid of D-League players.
Like a true Warriors' fan, Adam Lauridsen saw hope in last night's defeat.
Kurt Warner: NFC West Whore?
Posted On Friday, February 27, 2009 at at 2/27/2009 07:14:00 PM by KoskiMatt Maiocco's latest post says the 49ers could solve their QB "problem" by signing Kurt Warner. And, it might not be as far fetched as you think. Could Warner lead the 2009 49ers to the Super Bowl? I don't have the answer to that. But, the Super Bowl would be a lot closer with Kurt Warner under center instead of Shaun Hill or Alex Smith. If only we had Mike Martz! Oops.
Kurt Warner, Hall of Famer?
Posted On Wednesday, January 14, 2009 at at 1/14/2009 08:14:00 PM by KoskiThe NFC Championship game will be hosted by the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium thanks in large part to the play of Kurt Warner. The question that may be bounded about in the media is, “Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame player?”
Kurt Warner is NOT a Hall of Famer.
A Hall of Fame player should play at the highest level for many seasons. Career statistics set the threshold for greatness and post season performance acts as extra credit for those players whose career stats may be not up to snuff. I’ve picked several statistical categories to help compare Warner with several contemporary Hall of Fame quarterbacks and other contemporary quarterbacks with similar statistics. I chose six categories aiming to combine seasonal statistics, premier awards and Super Bowl extra credit points to see where Warner fits in historically.
3,000+ yards passing seasons – Throwing for 3,000 yards is a nice round benchmark of a superior season for a Quarterback. If you average 3,000 yards per season for 11 seasons your peers in career passing yardage would be Hall of Famers Steve Young, Y.A. Tittle, Troy Aikman and Sonny Jurgenson.
20+ TD pass seasons –If you averaged 20 TD passes a season for 12 seasons you’d have more TD passes than Steve Young, George Blanda and Jim Kelly and be right behind Y.A. Tittle.
# of Pro Bowls – As a QB, a pro bowl selection means you were one of the top 6 quarter backs in the NFL and one of the top three in your conference. One or two could be a blip, but four or five show consistent excellence.
Super Bowl Appearances – It’s important to get to the big game, even if you don’t win. Winning is a big bonus.
Seasons with 13+ games started – This is a longevity factor. 13 games is roughly 80% of a 16 game schedule. For QBs that played in the 1987 strike shortened season I use 11 games as the marker.
Up first, the five quarterbacks most recently inducted into the Hall of Fame, in no particular order:
Aikman
3,000+ = 5
20+ TDs = 1
Pro Bowl = 6
Awards = 1 SB MVP
SB record = 3-0
Seasons w/13+ GS = 8
Elway
3,000+ = 12
20+ TDs = 6
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 1 MVP, 1 SB MVP
SB record = 2-3
Seasons w/13+ GS =13
Moon
3,000+ = 9
20+ TDs = 7
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 0
SB record = N/A
Seasons w/13+ GS = 11
Marino
3,000+ = 13
20+ TDs = 13
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 3 time All Pro, 1 MVP
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 14
Kelly
3,000+ = 8
20+ TDs = 7
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 1 All Pro
SB record = 0-4
Seasons w/13+ GS = 11
Young
3,000+ = 6
20+ TDs = 5
Pro Bowl = 7
Awards = 3 All Pro, 2 MVP, 1 SB MVP
SB record = 1-0
Seasons w/13+ GS = 7
Now let’s look at retired quarterbacks that are not in the HOF and are most likely not going to be inducted any time soon:
Gannon
3,000+ = 4
20+ TDs = 4
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 2 All Pros and 1 MVP
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 4
3,000+ =7
20+ TDs = 5
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 1 All Pro
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 9
McNair
3,000+ = 6
20+ TDs = 3
Pro Bowl = 3
Awards = 1 MVP
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 8
Everett
3,000+ =7
20+ TDs = 6
Pro Bowl = 1
Awards = 0
SB record = N/A
Seasons w/13+ GS =8
Bledsoe
3,000+ = 9
20+ TDs = 7
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 0
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS =11
Next in line to the Hall:
Favre
3,000+ = 17
20+ TDs = 14
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 3 All Pros, 3 MVPs
SB record = 1-1
Seasons w/13+ GS =17
Here are Kurt Warner’s totals:
Warner
3,000+ =5
20+ TDs = 5
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 2 All Pros, 2 MVPs and 1 SB MVP
SB record = 1-1
Seasons w/13+ GS =3
Of all the quarterbacks I’ve listed, Kurt Warner is statistically closest to Rich Gannon, Troy Aikman and possibly Steve Yonug. He’s less like Aikman because Troy had Emmitt Smith and didn’t have to pass a great deal. Aikman and Warner are similar in the Awards/SB categories, where Aikman’s three wins and one SB MVP left no doubt of his greatness. Steve Young is somewhat similar, but sitting behind Hall of Famer Joe Montana for four seasons is a special circumstance that Warner does not similarly share. As of now, Warner is a slightly better Rich Gannon. Do you consider Rich Gannon to be a Hall of Famer? What if the Raiders had beaten the Buccaneers in SBXXXVII? I say Warner still has to do more to separate himself from Gannon to get into Canton.
One category routinely brought up by Warner-for-Hall-of-Fame supporters is his outstanding Passer Rating. I don’t put much stock in that category as a Hall of Fame indicator because it’s skewed by the current offensive era. Warner is currently 4th in career Passer Rating. The Hall of Famers I listed above have the following career passer ratings ranks: Aikman - 38th, Elway – 53rd, Moon – 42nd, Marino – 16th, Kelly – 25th and Young – 1st. The Top 20 in career Passer Rating is full of contemporary quarterbacks not even close to Hall of Fame consideration: Chad Pennington – 8th, Jeff Garcia – 13th, Trent Green – 17th, Marc Bulger -19th. In fact, 17 of the top 21 QBs in career passer rating are current players.
For me, Warner is close, but has some lofty achievements to reach before I would induct him into the Hall of Fame. He has had several great seasons, but also several okay-to-sub par, injury-shortened seasons and lacks the consistent greatness reserved for the Hall of Fame.
1) Warner will have to lead the Arizona Cardinals to the Lombardi trophy and win the SB MVP
2) He needs one more season of 3,000+ yards, 20+ TDs and 13+ games started.
Some would argue anyone who leads the Cardinals to a Super Bowl trophy should immediately be enshrined into Canton, but - what can I say – I still think the Hall of Fame is reserved for greatness.