by Koski

The early rounds of a fantasy draft build your team’s foundation. The last rounds are for kickers, defenses and low-risk flyers on players with upside. The middle rounds are where you display your ability as a manager by selecting the players who will out perform their perceived value while avoiding the players propped up on a bale of hype. With that in mind, I present two QBs, RBs and WRs who are being under drafted along with two of each who are being over drafted. The round in parenthesis is when the players are currently being drafted.

Don’t Sleep on These Guys

Matt Hasselbeck QB, Seattle Seahawks (10-11th round) - The Seahawks were devastated by injuries last season including both Seahawks starting tackles missed games due to injury. Hasselbeck battled back problems and only played in seven games while his starting wide receivers all missed games with Nate Burleson going out for the season in the first game and Deion Branch playing only eight games. What’s in store for this season you ask? Everyone is healthy and the addition of TJ Houshmandzadeh to the receiving corps is another weapon for Hasselbeck to utilize. Since 2003, Hasselbeck has alternated between Pro Bowl caliber seasons and injury riddled years. Last year he was injured, so this year… expecting a Pro Bowl this season is probably a little too optimistic, Hasselbeck should have a bounce back season and, at the least, would make a solid backup QB choice before the 10th round.

David Garrard QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (11-12th round) - David Garrard may have been healthy all last season but his offensive line was not. The starting interior lineman missed 38 combined games. On top of that, it was another year of poor production from the wide receivers. The interior line is healthy coming into the season and the Jaguars added veteran tackle, Tra Thomas in free agency and rookie tackle, Eugene Monroe in the first round of the draft. The improved line performance should translate into better numbers for Garrard. The receiving corps finally has one dependable option in Torry Holt, who may be showing his age, but still capable of boosting Garrard’s numbers. Like Hasselbeck, Garrard will be a solid backup QB with upside who should be snatched up before the 11th round.

Earnest Graham RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-10th round) - Graham was unable to match his 10 touchdown 2007 season because of injury. On the surface, the arrival of Derrick Ward would seem to doom Graham to back up duty, but Graham is a big back who can stay on the field as a full back even when Ward is in the game. Also, Graham’s physical running style should earn him some goal line carries. He’s also more active in the passing game than you’d think, so he could top 800 combined yards and seven touchdowns.

Fred Jackson RB, Buffalo Bills (10th round) - Marshawn Lynch’s pension to go “Beast Mode” off the field has earned him a three game suspension to start 2009. That means Fred Jackson will receive the bulk of the carries in the first three games. Jackson averaged 4.4 ypc last season on 130 carries. Bumping up his carries because of Lynch’s suspension should bump Jackson over 800 rushing yards. Jackson is also effective in the passing game, where he could top 50 receptions and 300 yards receiving, yet for some reason Marshawn Lynch is being drafted in the 7th round while Jackson is being drafted in the 10th.

Devin Hester WR, Chicago Bears (9-10th round) - Pop quiz, hot shot. What does Devin Hester have that most other players in the NFL do not? Speed. What does Jay Cutler have that Kyle Orton does not? Arm strength. Hester’s speed and Cutler’s ability to throw downfield should have a profound effect on Hester’s numbers. Hester will not be returning kickoffs this season, but will still return punts. As a result, the Bears will continue to enjoy good field postion because punters are kicking the ball out of bounds to keep the ball out of Hester’s hands or Hester will make something out of nothing and get those few extra yards which can make a difference in a game.

Donald Driver WR, Green Bay Packers (9-10th round) - Driver is 34 years old, but he’s put up five straight 1,000+ yards seasons. His touchdown total has been all over the place from two to nine over that period, but his receptions have been no lower than 74 over that five year period. Greg Jennings gets the most attention as the number one guy in fantasy drafts, but Jennings will also generate the attention of opposing defenses opening up holes for Driver to keep doing what he’s been doing.

Hit the Snooze on These Guys

Tony Romo QB, Dallas Cowboys (3rd round) - Blasphemy, I know. Here’s the thing, the Cowboys are always overrated. T.O. has moved on, and Dallas still has weapons for Romo like Jason Witten and Roy Williams, but if you draft Romo in the third round, you will regret it when you can get similar stats from Donovan McNabb or Jay Cutler two round later.

Kurt Warner QB, Arizona Cardinals (3rd round) - Hello, Yo-yo effect. Last season, Warner was largely undrafted last season and then threw for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. This season the pendulum has swung back and Warner is being drafted too high. The problem is Kurt Warner is 38 years old and he’s not known for his durability. He has all the weapons to put up similar numbers, but the likelihood of Warner starting every game next season should keep anybody from gambling their third pick on him.

Beanie Wells RB, Arizona Cardinals (7-8th round) - Wells is an amazing talent with size and speed. However, the knock on him leading up to the draft was that he was too brittle to hold up to NFL punishment. Wells is already missing games because of injury as he sat out the preseason opener with a sore ankle. The Cardinals aren’t much of a running team and Tim Hightower is still around and he scored 10 touchdowns last year. Wells should not be drafted before the aforementioned Earnest Graham or Fred Jackson.

Marshawn Lynch RB, Buffalo Bills (4th round) - Marshawn Lynch is missing three games due to suspension, yet is still being drafted ahead of the man slated to carry the ball during his absence, Fred Jackson. Three games out of sixteen isn’t too bad, but not many fantasy leagues are still going in week 17. On the other hand, three games is probably a quarter of your fantasy season and if he’s rusty when he comes back - your team could already be in a hole where weeks 14, 15 & 16 won’t even matter for you. Lynch should not be going ahead of Jonathan Stewart and Joseph Addai.

Antonio Bryant WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6th round) - Bryant returned to the NFL in 2008 after missing 2007 because he faced league suspension for off field incidents. The Bucs took a shot on him and were rewarded. In turn the Bucs rewarded Bryant by slapping the franchise tag on him and booted the quarter back who was throwing him the ball. Bryant tore his meniscus in training camp and will likely miss the entire preseason. When Bryant returns, he will be at the mercy of an untested rookie quarterback, Josh Freeman or, gulp, a worse than replacement level quarterback, Luke McCown.

Roy Williams WR, Dallas Cowboys (4th round) - Another victim of the Dallas hype machine. A poor 2008 was written off to being unfamiliar with the offense after he was traded to Dallas midseason and not enough ball to go around between the Cowboys receivers once he got there. Despite his size, Williams isn’t much of a red zone threat, especially on a team with Marion Barber and Jason Witten. I’m sure he’ll end up with decent numbers, but they won’t be good enough to justify a fourth round pick. Houshmandzadeh, Hines Ward and Chad Ochocinco are all better options that are being drafted behind Williams.

by Koski

NFL Training camps are in full effect, the Hall of Fame Game is in the books and the NFL season will be under way in less than a month. August is fantasy football draft month and that means it’s time to study up, fantasy football training camp style. The first thing you need to do is separate the true first round studs from the over-hyped phonies masquerading as first rounders. It doesn’t matter whether you have the first pick or the twelfth, the first round may be your only chance to land the impact player that leads your team to title town. Don’t screw it up because you won’t have time to make lemonade if your first pick is a lemon. Don’t worry, I’m here to help. Although you won’t win your league with your first pick a first round bust can sink your season fast.

Here’s the low down on the top 18 players according to average draft position and my opinion on whether they are a certified first round STUD or POSER:

1. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings RB (STUD)
Certified Stud. He doesn’t do a whole lot in the passing game, but doesn’t need to because he’s going to rush for 1,500+ yards. His only issue is that the Vikings QB situation (Tarvaris Jackson/Sage Rosenfels) doesn’t force opponents to respect the Minnesota passing game. It was the same story last year and All Day ended up 1,760 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns anyways.
2. Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons RB (POSER)
Phony. He might be hot, but he’s just going to break your heart. Curse of 370. What is the Curse of 370 you ask? You can read more about it at FootballOutsiders.com, but it says that there is a severe drop in a running back’s production the season after a he logs more than 370 regular season carries or 390 carries including playoffs. Here’s some evidence from a Washington Post article written by FO writer, Doug Farrar. Michael Turner had 376 regular season carries last year and totaled 394 after the playoffs. Even though it was his first season with such a workload, there’s a lot more risk involved than you want in a first round pick.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars RB (STUD)
Brad Meester, the Jaguars’ starting center, missed the first six games last season while both starting guards were injured in the first game and missed the rest of 2008 season. MJD still managed 1,300 total yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. With an improved line and 100 or so more total carries heading his way with the departure of Fred Taylor, you can have confidence selecting this pocket Hercules as your team’s cornerstone.
4. Matt Forte – Chicago Bears RB (STUD)
Forte carried the Bears’ offense last year, accounting for the second highest percentage of touches in the league. Despite his breakout rookie campaign, Forte’s potential seemed limited during the off season because defenses could key on him as the only offensive playmaker. Jay Cutler’s arrival should ease those concerns as opposing defenses will be forced to respect the passing game. The Bears lack of receiving options will also ensure Forte still sees a lot of passes out of the backfield.
5. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals WR (STUD)
The wide receiver version of Adrian Peterson. He cannot be stopped. 1,400+ yards and 10+ touchdowns and 96+ receptions each of the last two seasons. Finished in the top 10 in scoring last year (non-QBs) and he is only getting better. Even if Kurt Warner gets hurt, a distinct possibility, Larry Fitzgerald will get his stats.
6. Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia Eagles RB (POSER)
Obviously, Westbrook is no phony, he’s a great player, but risk keeps him from being a stud. He’s never started 16 games in a season and he had off season knee surgery then hurt his ankle in May. Westbrook will also be 30 when the season starts and that is usually when healthy running backs begin declining. Westbrook still maintains a lot of value as a receiver, but the Eagles passing game is going to be more active this season as DeSean Jackson matures and the arrival of first round draft pick, Jeremy Maclin, but Westbrook could also see his touches limited in the name of preservation. I know. He’s tempting, but don’t do it.
7. DeAngelo Williams – Carolina Panthers - RB (POSER)
He had 18 touchdowns last year! Williams only started two games prior to 20082, but he made the most of his opportunity last season. Williams got into the endzone more than four times his 2008 total and more than doubled his rushing yardage. However, Jonathan Stewart is going to get more carries this year, so it will be hard for Williams to match his 2009 numbers, especially the fluky touchdown total. The Panthers also have depth concerns on the offensive line, so an injury or two could really spell trouble for Williams’ numbers.
8. LaDanian Tomlinson – San Diego Chargers RB (STUD)
Yes, he is still a stud. I know what you’re thinking. Tomlinson is the same age as Westbrook and was banged up last season, so why the discretion between the two? Simple, the Chargers’ offense is a well oiled machine and Tomlinson will get his share of yards and touchdowns because defenses have to worry about Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. The presence of Darren Sproles should help keep LT fresh while ensuring he still gets those tasty goal line carries.
9. Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints QB (STUD)
STUD. He threw for 5,000 yards last year with his best receiver and red zone target, Marques Colston, missing most of the first half of the season due to injury. Brees will return to earth a little yardage-wise, but should still eclipse the 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns easily.
10. Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams RB (STUD)
Jackson had a nagging thigh bruise much of 2008, his offensive line was in shambles and the team stunk over all. The Rams used the second overall pick this year on mauling tackle, Jason Smith and added veteran center, Jason Brown. Jackson just turned 26 and is the performance peak of his career. With news of Donnie Avery, the Rams only legitimate receiver, being out four to six weeks with a leg injury Steven Jackson will be the focal point of the Rams offensive attack. Pass on him at your own peril.
11. Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers RB (POSER)
As much as I’d love to see him emerge as a stud, I can’t. Too risky. Gore is a consistent contributor, but not upper echelon. He’s hit 1,000 yards the last three seasons, but hasn’t scored more than eight rushing touchdowns in any season. He gets a boost for being active in the passing came, but not enough for stud branding. If you have faith that Shaun Hill or Alex Smith is going keep defenses honest, be my guest.
12. Brandon Jacobs – New York Giants RB (POSER)
He’s got the best line in football in front of him, and he’s a beast, especially near the goal line. Being a big bad beast does have its drawbacks. Jacobs is not going to play in every game and he’s not going to catch many passes (six in 2008). Jacobs is a great running back, but you’re going to have to lean on your first pick some weeks in the fantasy season and Jacobs might not be there when you need him most. Also, the Giants’ super offensive line was extremely healthy last season and might not be so fortunate this year.
13. Tom Brady – New England Patriots QB (STUD)
Always a stud. No worries about his knee. When Carson Palmer injured his knee it was in the first playoff game, Brady injured his in the first regular season game. Brady returns to the offense he set the all time touchdown mark with which is the same offense that made Matt Cassel a very rich man. Another 4,000+ yards, 30+ touchdown season with limited interceptions.
14. Andre Johnson - Houston Texans WR (STUD)
He’s going to top 100 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Stud.
15. Randy Moss – New England Patriots WR (STUD)
Moss had a down season last year, but Brady can throw it deep, just how Moss likes it. From Football Outsiders Almanac 2009: Matt Cassel to Moss on passes 30+ yards in the air, 3-26. Tom Brady to Moss on passes 30+ yards in the air in 2007? 10-20. Look for 90+ catches, 1,200+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. Stud.
16. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans RB (POSER)
Definitely a dangerous back with blazing speed, but he still splits carries with LenDale White. The carries that Johnson ends up losing are near the goal line, which are pretty important for your first pick. Long touchdowns runs are exciting, but also volatile. Not quite stud level.
17. Steve Slaton – Houston Texans RB (POSER)
Slaton didn’t start carrying a full load until late in the season when he had 744 yards in the second half. The problem is Slaton is in a prolific offense that spreads the ball around to various weapons like aforementioned stud, Andre Johnson. Slaton will put up good numbers, but not enough to be a first round stud.
18. Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts QB (STUD)
I had to change my mind. Peyton Manning is a stud. 4,000+ yards, 27+ touchdowns each of the last three seasons. Marvin Harrison may be gone, but so is Manning’s knee injury that depressed his numbers early last season. Manning will get stud level quarterback numbers, 4,000+ yards and 30+ touchdowns in 2009.

Boom! Championship! You’re welcome. You’re probably in a league full of morons so you’ll be able to draft two of these studs! Now, you have more time to work on the perfect fantasy football team name.

Next week: I’ll throw some sleepers at you. BTW, I’ve read good things about Javon Walker’s knee this year.

Stats from Football Outsiders Almanac 2009.