Weekend Thoughts
Posted On Monday, January 12, 2009 at at 1/12/2009 09:07:00 AM by KoskiNFL Playoff thoughts
Baltimore v. Tennessee
Sure, Baltimore has a great defense, but Tennessee gave that game away. Let's do a quarter by quarter breakdown of all the Titans breakdowns.
1Q: After looking good holding Baltimore to two three and outs the Titans score first and hold the Ravens to a 3rd and 18. Then defensive offsides on Vanden Bosch pushes it to 3rd and 13. No biggie, except on the next play it looks like Chris Hope is supposed to have the deep third coverage, but is late getting over and gives up the 48 yard touchdown.
2Q: Tennessee has another nice drive into Baltimore territory, but it stalls when a screen to Bo Scaife is sniffed out by Raven safety Leonhard for a five yard loss to make it 4th and 8 at the Baltimore 30. Because of the wind conditions Jeff Fisher elects to go for it and Collins fumbles the snap. 4th and 8 isn't close to guaranteed against the Ravens, but you have to give yourself a chance. The next Titans possession starts at their own one yard line and they move the ball all the way to the Baltimore 32 and face a 3rd and 8. The Ravens blitz and Collins throws up a duck that is easily intercepted. Collins is a seasoned veteran, but looked like the rookie all game when the Ravens bring more than four pass rushers. The Titans hold the Ravens to three and out and get the ball back and in seven plays are already inside the Raven 22 yard line with 36 seconds before halftime. LenDale White earns five hard yards, but doesn't protect the ball when he's in a wash of defenders and the ball pops loose and Baltimore recovers.
3Q: Both teams are playing great defense after the half, each team forcing three punts. The Titans get to the 28 yard line on one drive, but the Ravens challenge a third down catch by Scaife and the ruling is reversed forcing a 51 yard FG attempt instead of a 46 yard try. Bironas misses to the left. 51 yard FGs are not gimmes in any sense, but you have to make those in the playoffs if you want to move on.
4Q: After the Ravens take the lead with a FG, the Titans put together a ten play drive and Collins completes a pass to Alge Crumpler on 2nd and 9 from the Baltimore 13. Crumpler gains seven before he's hit and the ball goes flying forwards, recovered at the one by Baltimore. Again, the contact was coming, but the ball wasn't protected. The Titans hold the Ravens on the next drive and comeback and tie the game with a FG afterwards. When Baltimore gets the ball back, they face a 3rd and 2 on their own 32 yard line when the now infamous play clock reaches zero and no flag is thrown. The amount of leeway that NFL fans are used to allows for a split second after the play clock reaches zero to get a play off, but this was almost a full second.
The Ravens earned the victory, but Tennessee did more than enough to help them out. Both fumbles had more to do with carelessness than with defensive pressure. Joe Flacco the rookie had more pocket presence than 15+ year veteran Kerry Collins. Tennessee lost its best offensive player, Chris Johnson, for the entire second half because of an ankle injury and they got burned by an officiating blunder. What lesson can be learned from this? Don't let your team peak too early in the season. Tennessee was the last unbeaten team this year and then fell off a little, even though they ended with the best record in the NFL. They didn't "play" in week 17 and then they looked sloppy after the bye week.
Arizona @ Carolina
The surest bet around had to be Carolina -9.5 at home against the a Cardinal team that was 0-5 on the east coast this season and 2-22 in it's last twenty four games played in the eastern time zone who was missing a key cog in the offensive attack, Anquan Boldin. Carolina even came out and scored rather easily on the first drive in five plays. Unfortunately, the Panthers could not cover Larry Fitzgerald and Jake Delhomme might have had the worst playoff quarterback performance of all time. It was extra ironic for Delhomme because on Sunday NFL Countdown on ESPN, I think it was Bob Holtzman said Delhomme came into the game as third all time in playoff QB rating after Joe Montana and somebody else. Later on the same show Cris Carter repeated the stat, but didn't give Holtzman(or whoever said it originally) credit like he had come up with it himself. Delhomme had six(!) turnovers including five INTs. Delhomme had a playoff passer rating of approximately 104.5 before this game and it dropped over twenty points after this game to 83.3.
Philadelphia @ NY Giants
This game was all about the Eagles defensive line. The Giants defense played great as well, holding Westbrook to 36 yards on 18 carries and only two catches for ten yards, but the Ealges and Broderick Bunkley in particular won this game for Philly. It was windy at the Meadowlands and John Carney, who missed only two 40+ yard FGs all year, missed two in this game. The windy conditions and the Giants power run game led Tom Coughlin to go for it on fourth ans short three times, but the Giants only converted the once in the first quarter. Not counting the intentional grounding by McNabb in his own endzone for a safety, neither team had a sack this game. Two great defenses, both teams like to blitz and both are in the top ten in number of sacks this season had zero this game. The Giants had zero sacks against the Eagles in three games this year. Clap it up for the Eagles offensive line.
San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Every team that scored first this weekend ended up losing. Three of the four teams scored touchdowns first. San Diego connects on a long bomb to DUI Jackson and then force a Pittsburgh punt. After giving the ball to Darren Sproles three times the Chargers give the ball to last week's MVP, punter Mike Scifres. Unfortunately, the Charger punt coverage was hideous, with four men bunched on the left side of the field and the five others spread too far apart on the the other side of the field. Naanee had a chance to push Holmes out of bounds, but instead dove at his ankles like a punter/kicker/quarterback and Hollmes hurdled him easily. The key to this game was San Diego's inability to get pressure on Roethlisberger and the Steeler offensive line to protect Big Ben. Only one sack for the Chargers, by the safety Weddle, while the Steelers got four sacks from Woodley, Harrison and Keisel, all DL/LBs.
Sharks
Despite some people panicking because the Sharks aren't leading the other NHL teams by 10+ points, they beat the Oilers and Canucks on back to back nights on the road. Now the Sharks have four home games spread out over the next week before the All Star break.
Warriors
I hate this team. Not because they are losing and will continue to lose. It's because the team is symbolic of what the Warriors were just three short season ago and the previous decade before that, irrelevant with no hope for the future. Ellis is unhappy. Maggette sucks. He can get to the line, but he can't pass, at all. Bellinelli looks promising. Randolph looks promising. Wright looked promising before separating his shoulder. Will any of them flourish with the Warriors? Most likely not because Robert Rowell and Nellie mucked everything up when their egos got in the way. Warriors basketball, it's a great time out.
Koski's NFC Divisional Playoff Preview
Posted On Friday, January 9, 2009 at at 1/09/2009 09:39:00 AM by Koski#6
The Eagles defense beat the Vikings last week. While the Eagles only sacked Tarvaris Jackson once, he felt the pressure.
Offense – The Eagles struggled to run the ball last week, but should be marginally more successful this week versus the Giants top ten rush defense. The Eagles did a good job of finding an open Brent Celek, who was the leading receiver against
Defense – The Eagles stopped the Viking rushing attack, for the most part, last week. They’ll have an even greater challenge this week versus the number one rush offense in the league. Saying Eli Manning is less mobile than Tarvaris Jackson is an understatement to be sure, so I expect more sacks this week for the Eagles. Brian Dawkins is the Ed Reed of the NFC. He won’t have to worry about Plaxico Burress and will focus on stopping the run, blitzing Manning and creating turnovers.
#1
The Giants earned the number one seed and home field advantage with the best running game in the NFL and a top ten defense. Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward provided an excellent one-two punch behind the best offensive line in football. The Giants defensive line has played extremely well and has put a good deal on opposing quarterbacks despite losing Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to injury all season. Establishing a consistent rushing attack and containing Brian Westbrook will be the keys to victory.
Offense – Brandon Jacobs got nicked up at the end of the season, but has been able to rest for a couple weeks and should be ready to roll all over the Eagles. Derrick Ward comes in on passing downs and does his best Brian Westbrook impression when he gets the ball. The loss of Plaxico Burress severely hurts the offense in the playoffs. Burress provided a deep threat that required safety help. Domenik Hixon has had good games here and there, but has struggled to be consistent and will have a tough time against the Philly corners. TE Kevin Boss started the season slow, but has become more involved in the game plan during the second half of the season.
Defense – Justin Tuck leads the defensive attack from defensive end and he’s been aided by Mathias Kiwanuka and the improved play of Jay Alford and Fred Robbins. Corey Webster has proven to be an effective corner while Aaron Ross has been the corner that the opposition has chosen to attack. The Giants have problems covering the TE, but are still top ten in defending the pass.
Eagles on offense – The Eagles will have the same attack plan as they did versus the Vikings. They will try and get Westbrook matched up with the Giants linebackers in the passing game. The Giants linebackers are good, but they aren’t fast enough to keep up with Westbrook. I expect another 20+ touches for Westbrook and probably 10+ for Buckhalter, who is as healthy as he has been all season. The Eagles will feed Westbrook to draw the Giants safeties up before throwing the ball down the field to DeSean Jackson. The Eagles bring in Buckhalter a lot on passing downs because he’s a good pass blocker, but he’s also effective on draws and screens. McNabb will be under fire for a lot of the game and he’ll need to move around and keep plays alive while Tra Thomas and John Runyan try and block Justin Tuck. Like last week, I predict a “big” game for TE Brent Celek as the Giants defense has a lot of other responsibilities to worry about.
Giants on Offense- The battle in the trenches will be the key to victory. The Giants line will need to move the Eagles defensive tackles and slow the end rushers. The Giants want to use Jacobs pounding running style to challenge the Philly linebackers to tackle him all game. After the linebackers get tired of Jacobs, Ward comes in and uses his quickness to evade tacklers and break long runs. The Giants will want to stay away from obvious passing situations where Jim Johnson can go blitz happy without worrying about safety help deep. I expect a trick play or two from the Giants as they try and take advantage of the aggressive Philly defense. TE Kevin Boss should play an integral part in the passing game as Manning’s safety valve and should see some targets in the red zone.
Prediction- I really like how the Eagles are playing right now. They only lost by five at home when the Giants had Burress and beat the Giants at the Meadowlands a mere five weeks ago. Playing
#4
The Cardinals scored on a long flea flicker pass, a disrupted handoff fumble return and a short crossing pass to Boldin who somehow managed to stay inbounds as he sprinted down the sideline and they only won by six points. The Cardinals defensive line played outstanding, Betrand Berry in particular, and we’ll see if they can repeat the performance on the road where the Cardinals have been horrendous.
Offense- Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the NFC and it’s a virtual draw between him and Andre Johnson for best wide receiver in the NFL. When Boldin is playing, the Cardinals like to work him underneath with Breaston and Fitzgerald working the deeper routes. This worked to perfection against the Falcons when Boldin caught a short pass and took it 71 yards for a score and Fitzgerald caught a 42 yard toss up over two Falcons in the end zone. Edgerrin James was surprisingly effective against a bad Falcons defense, but how will he do versus a better Panther defense?
Defense- The Cardinals defense turned up the pressure against
#2
Offense – I covered the rushing stats above, but DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were both excellent running backs this year. Williams had an unbelievable year with 18 rushing touchdowns including two games with four a piece. Stewart was no slouch either, rushing for 10 touchdowns himself, more than Portis, Chris Johnson or Brian Westbrook. Steve Smith might have topped both backs by having the third most receiving yards in the NFL (only ten behind Fitzgerald) despite playing in only 14 games! Smith has a knack for catching deep passes in clutch situations. Pick your poison Cardinals, who will you try to stop?
Defense – The defense was not as good as you’d think for such a highly touted team.
Cardinals on offense – The Cardinals don’t have much choice. They are a passing team and that’s all they are. Even if Boldin is out they will bring in Jerheme Urban and keep throwing. Frankly, it’s for the best. It’s the playoffs so don’t waste your time trying to be something you are not. Put Warner back in the shotgun and spread the offense. Levi Brown will have his hands full with Julius Peppers and his results will be a referendum on his high draft status.
Prediction – Magic Eightball, will the Panthers obliterate the Cardinals this weekend? “All signs point to Yes.” I don’t see any way the Cardinals can win this game. They only lost by four in October, but