by RT

(In Part 1, I discussed the players I like, dislike and strongly dislike in the 2009 NBA Draft.  In Part 2, I will discuss the top 5 players I would like to see the Warriors pick and why.)

Before we get to the top 5, let me further explain my philosophy on the NBA Draft. Every lottery team needs to ask themselves the following question before they make their selection – “Can I see this player turning into an IT player?” If the answer is “No” then you should not pick him. I hate the concept of picking based on need and not on potential stardom.  Some of the best players of all-time (Kobe, Garnett, Michael) have been passed on because a team “needed” a point guard or a center.  Until David Stern or one of his underlings is not running the NBA, there is no reason to select anyone who doesn’t have a high ceiling with a lottery pick.  With that being said, let’s take a look at what should be the top 5 players on the Warriors draft board. 

5. James Harden

How talent poor is the 2009 NBA Draft? I have James Harden in my Warriors top 5. I said in part 1, I think Harden is destined for the middle level exception. However, he does have a little Paul Pierce in him.  He can score from anywhere and only needs a little bit of space to get his shot off.  The biggest question is not his talent but his drive to be great.  In college, he played with the motivation of a stoned-sloth and allowed his immense amount of talent to separate him from other players.  The reality is that some guys are motivated by money and turn into completely different players once their pay check is tied to how many points they score.  While I don’t believe this to be the case with Harden, he does have a higher ceiling than anyone else besides our top four.

Why he works for the Warriors: Put it this way, he doesn’t fit in their immediate plans but if he starts to exhibit the potential many have pinned on him, the Warriors won’t need Azubuike.

(Did I mention this is a bad draft?) 

4. Earl Clark

Either Earl Clark or Terrence Williams will be seen as a steal 5 years from now.  I am leaning towards Clark because of his size and unique talent.  When the biggest question about a guy is his off the court problems, he is my guy.  Similar to DeMar DeRozan, he has a sky is the limit ceiling.  He can handle the ball, rebound and has a 7’2” wing span.  Clark is the definition of a high risk, high reward player.

Why he works for the Warriors: The two things the Warriors have going for them when it comes to dealing with young trouble makers is Nellie and Capt. Jack.  Nellie’s tough love seemed to motivate Randolph to work harder and I know it made him a better player.  If you are going to give Jackson a ridiculous extension, you might as well let him use his mentoring skills on a player like Clark.

3. Tyreke Evans

This guy is not a freakish athlete but he does possess all the skills that could make him a great player in the Association.  He can handle the ball, shoot over point guards and finish around the basketball.  I would consider him a more motivated James Harden that can handle the ball. If he can deal with the rigors of playing point guard in the NBA, he will create all kinds of match-up problems for opposing teams that do not have big point guards because of his size and strength.

Why he works for the Warriors: He is strong enough to guard an NBA shooting guard which should mitigate one of the Warriors biggest problems which is Monta Ellis on the defensive end.

2. DeMar DeRozan

There has been a lot of talk about how DeRozan did not put up the numbers that was expected of him when he was at USC.  While some attribute his low production to a lack of talent, I have a different take. He played on a very dysfunctional USC team that was full off selfish players that played with OJ Mayo jealousy the entire season. The last thing Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson were going to do was watch another freshman hurt their chances of playing in the NBA. As a result, the team had no flow and a coach that did a lot more recruiting than coaching. 

DeRozan is the type of freakish athlete that excels at the NBA level and there is every reason to believe he could blossom into a great player. There is no denying the huge risk that he represents because of his lack of production at USC but his upside is enormous.  You can teach people how to be great athletes but you can teach them how to shot.  DeRozan is the definition of the type of risk NBA GMs should take when picking #7 in the draft.  When you ask the question - “Can I see this player turning into an IT player?”  The answer is YES!

Why he works for the Warriors: The Warriors have not had an IT player that cannot only score but defend his position since … Tim Hardaway?

1. Ricky Rubio

Simply put, he has the most upside in this draft. There isn’t one player (including Griffin) that could be a regular All-Star more than Rubio. He has been playing pro basketball for years and playing it well. If he comes anywhere close to living up to expectations as a passer, he will improve everyone around him and, almost more importantly, sell a lot of tickets. Until hand checking is allowed back in the NBA, Rubio is the top pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Why he works for the Warriors: He works in everyway possible. He is a pure point guard that can create open looks for their solid wing players. He is not a great on ball defender which is also not a huge problem for the Warriors if they start playing Biedrins and Turiaf together down low.  There is no reason the Warriors should not trade up to get him.

(The Clippers should trade Griffin for Rubio and another player. Of course, this trade makes too much sense for the lowly Clippers)

Random Draft Thoughts

* Every scout agrees that Griffin and Thabeet are offensively challenged. If they go 1 and 2 in the draft, isn’t this like saying the top two picks in the MLB draft can’t hit a fastball?

* How good of a couch is Roy Williams? He has won two National Championships with basically low first round talent.

* If the Warriors take Jordan Hill, I may turn my allegiance to a NBDL team.

* Is Kevin Love really that much better than Tyler Hansbrough?

* Rubio will regret the day he said he was willing to play in Sacramento over OKC.

* Did I mention that taking Jordan Hill would be a huge mistake?

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by RT

For die-hard Warriors fans, the Baron Davis led 06-07 Warriors team ruined our annual holiday which is the NBA Draft.  Luckily for us, the 08-09 Warriors lived up to expectations and failed to make the playoffs.  As a result, I get to write this two-part NBA Draft preview.

In part 1, we will look at a few of the players that are making headlines this week.  Each of the selected players will be put into a group that (I believe) accurately predicts where they should be drafted based on their actual potential. 

Group 1: Should not be drafted in the first round let alone the lottery

Hasheem Thabeet

I am so sick of people comparing this guy to Diekmbe Mutumbo.  From his first day at Georgetown, Mutumbo gained satisfaction in blocking shots and reminding opposing players that he owned the paint with his signature finger wag.  Later on, he developed a serviceable offensive game and was at his best when he teamed up with Allen Iverson to make the NBA Finals in 2001.  Thabeet has nothing that even resembles the fire or the pride in his game needed to be successful at the highest level.  All you need to know about Thabeet is that he was so broken up by his team’s loss at the Final Four that he sat in the stands during the National Championship game wearing sunglasses with a big smile on his face.  He could be out of the league in 5 years.  Where is the upside?

Jordan Hill

Let me get this straight – Jordan Hill is a 6’9” power forward who is (“in theory”) a top 5 pick yet his team barely made the NCAA tournament and were dominated by their rivals (ASU) during his time at U of A. At best, he is good everything, great at nothing.  Sounds like the perfect franchise player to me!  Can you say Jared Jefferies?

(Brandon Jennings would have made this list but he is no longer projected as a lottery pick)

Group 2: Could be a productive NBA player but not worth the pick they will be taken at

Blake Griffin

Maybe I am missing something but isn’t Blake Griffin a poor man’s Dwight Howard

Freakish Athleticism: Check

No Jumper: Check

Low Basketball IQ: Check

Never going to be a go team player at the end of the game: Check

Don’t get me wrong, I know the guy is going to average 10 and 10 but he is not going to pay the dividends that teams should expect from the number one pick overall.

Stephen Curry

Why does everyone think Curry is going to be this great point guard?  He has been a scorer his entire life and now he is going to be asked to distribute the ball at the highest level of basketball on the planet.  Not exactly the easiest transition.  The majority of great point guards in the league played point guard in college and the best exception to that statement is Rajon Rondo.  However, how good would Rondo be if he was drafted by the Bucks? Think about it. Again, I think Curry will be a decent NBA player but stardom seems far from likely.

(More on Rondo, Danny Ainge would not be shopping the guy if he was as good as the media makes him out to be.)

James Harden

There is a very good chance that James Harden could have the mid-level exception named after him when his career is over.  Remember Will from Good Will Hunting?  Of course you do.  Well, James Harden will be Will Hunting’s equivalent in the NBA.  Harden has borderline All-Star talent with zero desire to do anything more than give B+ effort and collect $5 mm a year.  There is no doubt in my mind that one team will be tricked into picking him in the top 5.

Group 3: The NBA is a star driven league and these guys could become “IT” players

DeMar DeRozan

Besides Ricky Rubio, who in this draft has a higher ceiling than DeMar DeRozan?  The guy has an NBA body right now and is a super athlete.  He is not nearly as polished as O.J. Mayo was when he came out but is a better athlete and could be viewed as having more potential.  As long as David Stern is running the NBA, you will always need IT players to win the NBA Championship and DeRozan is one of the few players in this draft that could develop into an IT player.

Tyreke Evans

All I should have to say is 6’5” 195 lbs. and he plays the point.  What you need to know about him besides being a big PG is that he can distribute the ball and has the potential to cause all kinds of match-up problems if he is selected by a team with an above-average point guard.  There are very few teams that can boast two proven ball handlers on the perimeter and Evans could provide certain teams with that type of versatility. Similar to DeRozan, he has a higher ceiling than most players that are projected to go in the lottery.

Ricky Rubio

His ceiling is a taller version of Steve Nash (two-time MVP).  I don’t understand how he is not the automatic #2 pick.  How exactly can the Grizzles justify to their fans taking Thabeet over Rubio?  Numerous players on the Redeem Team raved about his skills in Beijing and yet some NBA GMs are afraid to take him.  Not only does he have the potential to be a great player, but he will also increase ticket sales which will offset the money you might have to pay to get him out of Spain.  Nobody is going to go out and buy season tickets to see James Harden or Jordan Hill but they will to see Rubio.  Besides Griffin, Rubio is hands down the best pick a team can make in the 2009 NBA Draft.

(Part 2 will focus on the Warriors and their draft “situation”)

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Soccer

* If you like soccer, you cannot miss FC Barcelona's visit to the Bay Area.

Baseball

* The Giants have been secretly shopping Sanchez for two years and they have been holding out for a bag of Sour Cream and Cheddar Ruffles but the best offer they got was day old Cheetos. As a result, they realized is a mediocre pitcher and might be moving him to the bullpen.

* This is what Mel Hall's lawyer said after they handed him a 45 year prison sentence for rape: "For all the good this man has done in his life, it seems like this was an excessive verdict" HE RAPED A 12 YEAR OLD GIRL AND RUINED HER LIFE FOREVER!!! This guy should be in jail for saying that.

* Extra Baggs asks (in theory) a rhetorical question: "Can any matchup in baseball be more entertaining than Tim Lincecum vs. Vladimir Guerrero?". Lincecum v. Pujols, Manny v. Santana, Verlander v. A-Rod, King Felix v. Cabrera ... I guess nobody told a guy whose job is to watch baseball that Vlad is washed up.

* You should be kicked out of baseball if you give up a home run to Rajai Davis.

Football

* Great players do the work to be great ... JaMarcus Russell talks about it. I would like to thank my parents for not making me a Raiders fan.

Basketball

* Jonny Flynn is better than Jordan Hill but not that much better.

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