by RT

Last Year…

Not surprisingly, the Warriors’ season was a nightmare. The happy days of the Baron-led Warriors was long gone and the team lacked true leadership and an identity. The ghost of Monta Ellis’s injured ankle hung over the team for most of the season and, apparently, scared the team into playing no defense for most of the season.

However, it wasn’t all terrible. As I said in last year’s preview, out of Wright, Randolph or Bellinelli, one of them was going to show signs of greatness. True enough, Wright got hurt, Bellinelli was given no direction (or coaching) and continued to tread water in the pool of mediocrity and Randolph showed displayed flashes of greatness. The only person I know who loves the NBA as much as I do gave some very high praise to Randolph last week.

If nothing else, the 2008-2009 Warriors’ season provided us with two major positives:

1) Randolph has the potential to be an All-Star

2) Monta Ellis showed signs of his old greatness

As you should all should know by now, having two “IT” players is basically a requirement for a team to contend for a title.

The Off-Season

The Good…

* Stephen Curry: As I go through this preview I am going to remind all the bandwagon I-became-a-Warriors-fan-in-2007 fans (aka “dubs” fans) about how good we have it in 2009-2010. Before Chris Mullin became the GM, the Warriors would have taken Jordan Hill in this year’s draft. Instead the Warriors made the best pick possible by taking the dynamic guard from Davidson with the number 6 pick. The name of the game in the NBA draft lottery is take the best player available no matter who you have on your roster and that is exactly what the Warriors did. There are really only two possible outcomes for Curry.

1) He becomes the second coming of Steve Nash and we get to sit back and watch some amazing basketball over the next 12 years.

2) He becomes the second coming of Dale Ellis. (Dubs fans, he was a sharp shooter who brought nothing to the table except quality three-point shooting.)

* Amare Stoudemire is not a Warrior: Koski told me over the weekend how much he hates the Warriors management. I told him that I am willing to give them a chance but if they trade for Amare, I am done. The bottom line is the Warriors have a lot of young talent and they will need to trade some of it to take the next step but the time to do it not now. The fact that the current management had the discipline to not mortgage the future for a quick fix, is a good sign.

The Bad….

* Captain Jack to Stephen Jackson: If you ask anyone who knows anything about basketball, the Warriors need to have a tall point guard who can guard the likes of Kobe and Brandon Roy while Monta plays shooting guard. Amazingly enough, the Warriors already have that player and his name was Captain Jack. However, the clock struck midnight on this relationship and or fearless leader has turned back into a pumpkin. A starting lineup of Capt. Jack, Monta, Randolph, Ronny Turiaf and Andres Biedrins is pretty darn intimidating. Unfortunately, we will never get to see it.

* Don Nelson is still the coach: Like George W. Bush in December last year, Don Nelson doesn’t care anymore and is already looking towards retirement. As a result, a team oozing with talent and looking for guidance has only two “role models” – 1) the man mentioned above and 2) a coach who drinks scotch before games and who will tell the young players “just keep shooting”. By the all-star break, we will be mentioning Cohan’s decision to not let Nelson go in the same breath as the Corey Maggette signing.

The Ugly…

Randy Johnson*

Outlook 2009-2010

For those of you not familiar with my preview style, I will talk about what the Warriors should do and my predictions as opposed to what they will do (which will undoubtedly not be what I suggest)

The Stating Line-up

Point Guard: Stephen Jackson

He is under contract and as long as the Warriors force him to honor that contract (see what I said about the Al Harrington situation last year which applies to the Stephen Jackson situation this year), he still gives the Warriors a chance to be successful this year. Monta needs to play shooting guard and Stephen Jackson is the perfect player to get the offense started for the Warriors unconventional backcourt. Not to mention, he can still guard the likes of Kobe Bryant and Manu Ginobili.

Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis

To be clear, Monta should be playing the same role AI played for the Sixers in the late 90s and early 2000s. For all the dubs fans out there, AI was the first under 6’4” player to play carry the burden of scoring and lead his team to the finals. Monta is cut from the same cloth and there is no reason that he cannot do the same thing AI did if the Warriors surround Monta with the right supporting cast.

(I can’t be the only person who thinks this backcourt makes perfect sense)

Small Forward: Anthony Randolph

If the Warriors do nothing else this year, the one thing they need to do is play Randolph 40 minutes a night. Period. He will have nights where is the best player on the court and other nights where even the most optimistic Warrior fan will think he will never live up to the hype. Either way, he needs to be allowed to play and gain confidence from his successes and learn from his mistakes.

Power Forward: Ronny Turiaf

There is a better chance of the sun rising in the west then there is of Turiaf starting at power forward on a Don Nelson team. I cannot help but agree with this move by Don Nelson. There is nothing that drags a team down like an unselfish, hard-working, defensive rebounding power forward in your starting frontcourt. Smart move Mr. Nelson … your genius knows no bounds.

(I cannot wait for the Cam Inman article in 2011 when he calls the next Warriors coach a genius for playing Turiaf and Biedrins side by side. Of course, I might be giving Inman too much credit)

Center: Andris Biedrins

The definition of a rock solid NBA player is Andris Biedrins. The only question is how many years can the Warriors count on him to be a 13-11 guy who plays great defense and always seems to get better right when you think he has plateaued? 10 more years? 12? I am starting the campaign that says anyone who bad mouths Biedrins at a Warriors game should spend a night in the drunk tank at the county jail.

The Bench

* Corey Maggette: It is about time we started calling Maggette “Mr. 2nd Quarter”. All Maggette cares about are his numbers and Nelson finally started to realize that last year. As a result, Maggette is the perfect player to play during garbage time (aka the 2nd quarter) in an NBA game. He could score 16 points in 12 minutes and with 12 of the 16 coming from the line. The Warriors would win at least 5 more games just for the fact that Maggette would keep them in games they would normally roll over in. I love this plan.

(Of course, Nelson will think Maggette is playing a great game by halftime, leave him in during crunch time and Maggette will stop driving to the basket because he will have scored his 23.5 points and start shooting fade away jump shots because he does not want to get hurt. Who says NBA players are selfish!?)

* Anthony Morrow: What is the exact opposite of Biedrins? Anthony Morrow. The only thing I know for certain is that he will have night where he has a hard time guarding a flag pole let alone an NBA player. However, the combination of his offensive skill and hustle probably puts him in front of Kelenna Azibuke. I don’t think Morrow is destined for greatness, but he could prove to be a legitimate candidate for the 6th man of the year award.

* Kelenna Azibuike: What can you say about the Wizard of Azibuike? He does everything well and nothing great. While that description is to be considered a negative comment when talking about a starter, it is a compliment for a reserve. There isn’t a Warrior fan who should be upset when he comes on to the floor.

* Brandan Wright: Let’s play Jeopardy –

Answer: For the Warriors to make the playoffs in the 09-10, this player needs to have a breakout season.

Question: Who is Brandan Wright?

In other news, Brandan Wright might miss the season with a shoulder injury.

* Acie Law IV: Allow me to make this quick … Acie Law is a poor man’s Marco Bellinelli.

(and yes, I am very proud of that reference)

* Mikki Moore: The Warriors have to be the only team in NBA history that replaces a skinny power forward who can barely shoot or rebound with a skinny power forward who can barely shoot or rebound. There has to be a player in Germany right now that is 6’10” 265 lbs that can at least rebound. Seriously.

* Speedy Claxton/C.J. Watson/Devean George: Every minute these guys play is a wasted minute. None of them are going to be an integral part of a Warrior playoff team now or in the future, so why play them when some of the other guys need experience.

(Over/Under on how many minutes C.J. Watson averages this year is 15.5. I hate that I love this team)

Prediction

The Warriors

The Warriors are not going to make the playoffs. However, this is the second best Warriors team (based on talent) the Warriors have had to start a season in the last 14 years. Seriously, look it up if you don’t believe me. While Dubs fans will complain about how terrible the team is, Warriors fans will get to watch some amazing basketball at the Oracle, where the Warriors will be tough to beat. However, young teams struggle on the road and the Warriors will be no different. Once again, I will be too optimistic with my prediction but I am standing behind it. Same exact predication as last year:

Finish: 40-42, 4th in the Pacific and 10th in the Western Conference.

Happy Warriors Season!

The League

The one thing I will say about the 2009-2010 NBA season is that it will be the most boring NBA season in recent memory. The Lakers are far and away the best team and there is no reason they don’t sleep walk to the title.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic
1. Boston (2)
2. Philadelphia (6)
3. Toronto (8)
4. New Jersey
5. New York

Central
1. Cleveland (1)
2. Chicago (4)
3. Detroit
4. Indiana
5. Milwaukee

Southeast
1. Orlando (3)
2. Atlanta (5)
3. Charlotte (7)
4. Washington
5. Miami

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest
1. Denver (2)
2. Portland (5)
3. Utah
4. OKC
5. Minnesota

Southeast
1. San Antonio (3)
2. New Orleans (4)
3. Dallas (7)
4. Houston
5. Memphis

Pacific
1. LA Lakers (1)
2. Phoenix (6)
3. LA Clippers (8)
4. The Warriors
5. Sacramento

The Finals
LA Lakers over Cleveland

Bold Prediction: The Lakers win 70 games


* The Ugly...Randy Johnson joke courtesy of McCovey Chronicles

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by RT

Allow me to make something crystal clear; the Warriors will not make the NBA Finals in the next three years. There is no reason to think the Warriors are going to be better than the Lakers over that span of time (not to mention the Spurs, Nuggets and Hornets). As a result, before any moves are made the Warriors’ front office must ask themselves the following question, “Will this move make us the best we can be in 2012/2013?” With this thought in mind, let’s look at the three potential moves the Warriors could possibly make to maximize their ability to win the NBA Championship in 2013.

Move #1 – Do not do anything

The fact of the matter is that this team has a really good (not great) young nucleus. If they don’t make any other changes over the off-season, I promise you they win at least 5 more games next season if not 10. Why is everyone in such a hurry to make a trade? The Warriors have the unique opportunity to grow organically by building team chemistry through years of experience on the court. Besides a true IT player, the team has all the pieces to become a tough team to beat by the 2010/2011 season. They have veteran leadership in Stephan Jackson, length down low in Biedrins and Wright, solid bench players in Maggette and Turiaf and, most importantly, two potential IT players in Monta and Randolph. All of these guys are locked up through the 2010/2011 season which means the current team could develop together for three full seasons. There is no reason to think this group of players cannot develop into a formidable unit in two or three seasons. If Randolph or Monta become IT players the Warriors are a contender as early as the 2011/2012 season.

(Did I mention Stephen Curry is the ultimate wild card? I would argue the Warriors don’t even need him to turn into anything more that a sharp shooter to become legitimate playoff team by 2010/2011.)

Move #2 – Sign ZaZa Pachulia

The Warriors need to give Turiaf and Biedrins some help down low and the answer is to find a discount power forward that can play defense and rebound. ZaZa Pachulia is their guy. He is only 25 years old and he does not need the ball on offense to remain happy. Last year, he gave the Hawks 6.2 ppg and 5.7 rpg in 19 minutes a game! The only guy that average more rebounds than 5.7 per game last season on the Warriors was Biedrins. Throw him into the rotation with Turiaf, Wright and Biedrins and the front line could be set for at least the next three seasons.

(You also have to love that this guy looks like a bar room brawler)

Move #3 – Trade Brandan Wright for Marc Gasol

Everyone wins with this trade. The Grizzles get the long athletic power forward that is a perfect compliment for Hasheem Thabeet (who they actually think is good) and the Warriors get a 7’1” banger down low. Even though I like Wright’s game, he does not have the handles to play the three and we already have a long skinny left hander playing the 4 or 5 so Wright is redundant. Similar to Pachulia, Gasol is tough and is a great rebounder. Both teams win in this trade.

(The more I think about this trade, the more I love it. Not only does Gasol give the Warriors much needed toughness, but he also is the perfect foil for his brother, Pau. Who is going to guard Pau Gasol better than his younger brother?)

Questions I want answered by you, the reader

* Who would you rather have – Kevin Love or Marc Gasol?

* With 6 seconds left and you are down by 1, do you trust Amare to win the game for you?

* What rookie is more marketable than Stephan Curry?

* If you are going to trade one of your young players, doesn’t it make more sense to trade Monta?

* When is Cohan going to give Warriors season ticket holders the $3 mm he promised them last fall?

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Basketball

All it takes is a little cynical speculation by Kawakami and the TK haters flood the comment boards. Seriously, read a few of the comments below the post, those people are insane!Even if yo believe that RileSon flew to Memphis just to tell ME he's their cornerstone and massage his ego, you should realize that is outside normal opporating procedure.

Adam Lauridsen with a nice overview of Nellie's draft history and preferences.

Football

When Scott Ostler is taking dumps on your team, that's pretty much the bottom of the barrel, right?

Baseball

Orlando Cabrera says he sucks right now. Edgar, do you have something to say for yourself?

From Rob Neyer's Friday Filberts, Ben Zobrist is leading the AL in Slugging. Almost as surprising, Torii Hunter is second.

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Move Monta
by Koski

The Warriors have effectively painted themselves into a corner of suck since July of last year. The team is not very good, even when healthy, and the payroll flexibility they had after signing Andris Biedrins and Monta Ellis to extensions was effectively destroyed by Stephen Jackson’s extension and the Jamal Crawford trade. To make matter worse, Monta Ellis got paid and immediately embarked on a series of immature offenses when he was supposed to be taking a leadership role (The Warriors were delusional to think Monta was ready to be a leader). The Warriors’ front office was upset, not so much with the injury, but the lying (it’s always the lying that makes people mad) and fined Ellis $3 million dollars which then made Ellis upset. The Warriors still hang the “We reserve the right to void your contract” slogan over Ellis as he tries to rehab his ankle, visit his sick mother or whatever he’s been doing. The solution to me is simple - Trade Monta

Monta Ellis is the most attractive asset the Warriors have (Biedrins is essentially “untouchable”) that can create payroll flexibility or bring in a marquee player through a trade. Sure, I’d move Corey Maggette and Jamal Crawford for a bag bricks if I could, but that is not gonna happen any time soon. Also, Ellis’ attitude since he’s signed his contract worries me. There will be deals to be had this upcoming offseason when owners in the NBA will be looking to shed payroll as the salary cap actually goes down next season. Monta is an attractive asset to other team’s because his contract can be considered reasonable when you think of his upside. Ellis’s contract doesn’t even crack the NBA’s top 30 player salaries this season and he’s just about to hit the peak years for a guard in the Association. Ellis presents the perfect opportunity for another team to acquire him via trade, market the move to their fan base as a n attempt to be competitive when it’s purely a cost saving maneuver. The current Warriors lineup has potential to be okay and possible make the playoffs, but just making the playoffs is only acceptable if you haven’t been in 13 seasons. It’s time to build a real contender and the first step is to trade Monta for a marquee player.
Here are some possible trades to consider:

Scenario Number 1:
Monta Ellis and Kelenna Azubuike to the Hawks for Joe Johnson.

Joe Johnson and Monta Ellils are both 20+ppg shooting guards. Johnson is scheduled to make almost $15 mm next season and the Hawks could get a nice two for one in this deal. The Warriors have to pay Johnson, but it’s the last year of his deal and we all know how well he played in the up tempo Suns’ offense. Johnson could also be a valuable trading piece before the deadline as a nice scoring option with an expiring contract would likely attract numerous contenders.

Scenario Number 2:
Monta Ellis and Corey Magette/Stephen Jackson for Dirk Nowitzki

This trade verges on the insane and a lot would have to happen to make this plausible, but hear me out. Yes, I realize Mark Cuban and Don Nelson are as close to being friendly as the Hatfileds are with the McCoys. But, Mark Cuban has expressed his displeasure with the product of basketball the Mavs have displayed lately and even went as far to say he wouldn’t be opposed to blowing things up. Another two for one deal for the Warriors that would send two solid players to Dallas that would fit in on their roster and keep the team competitive. For the W’s Dirk would be reunited with Nellie and would comprise a frontcourt of Biedrins, Dirk and Randolph with Turiaf and Wright as the reserves. W-O-W.

Scenario Numebr 3:
Monta Ellils and Kelenna Azubuike for Steve Nash

This one is another reuniting deal that actually gives the Warriors a legitimate, if not old, point guard who thrived under Nellie. Granted, he’s a matador on the defensive side, but at least he’s a “real” point guard who can dribble and pass. Having a distributor like Nash on a team with a young core like the Warriors would be great for player development. The Suns unload Nash’s large contract, pick up a young shooter in Ellis and a solid, small forward in Buke who outplays his contract.

Scenario Number 4:
Monta Ellis for Mike Conley and Marko Jaric

Memphis may be the stingiest team in the NBA right now, but they’ve got to sell tickets like everyone else. Their roster is horrible - Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo being the only respectable talent on their team. Memphis was a team that always had rumored interest in Ellis before his extension.. Jaric is despicable, but his wife is hot (Adrianna Lima) and his contract would be movable. This would be the essential salary dump move. Using a baseball analogy Giants fans are familiar with, Conley may be a Joe Nathan in waiting. Good player that just needs a change of scenery.

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IT players don’t grow on Trees
by RT

Trading Monta Ellis is a really bad idea.
Let’s get one thing straight – most of the Warriors “fans” bitching about Monta Ellis and the entire team are people who have no idea who Chris Mills is and think Run TMC was a rap group. For those of us blindly loyal Warriors fans we realize that the team has not seen a non-playoff Warrior team with this most potential in the last 20 years. Monta Ellis is critical to the team reaching its lofty potential with which some of us see.

Winning the NBA championship is about having a few great players and role players that complement the star player’s inefficiencies. Without Monta Ellis, the Warriors have ZERO great players. I don’t need a TI-82 to realize that obtaining a few great players is a lot easier when you already have one.

The last time the Warriors had a great player (Webber) after a dysfunctional season, the Warriors fell into an abyss for 13 years. While predicting 13 years of future futility if Ellis departs might be a little extreme, the idea of this team going nowhere for the next 5 years doesn’t seem farfetched.
All I hear from Warriors fans and handcuffed/uninformative writers is that Anthony Randolph could turn into an IT player. Obviously, we have a few more years to see if he is the one that the prophecy talked about but I ask you – where are the Warriors if they jettison Monta and Randolph lives up to his potential!? Still Nowhere.

Monta is one of the very few players that can get his shot whenever he wants it and makes it when he is fully healthy. Not to mention, he has AI like fearlessness which is required of an elite player. The 2007/2008 version of Monta could (will) return next season and the Warriors are set to build up some much-needed confidence for the coming seasons.

The one-two punch of Monta and Randolph could be something special for years to come. There is no reason to break that up after one lost season. A core of Biedrins, Ellis and Randolph could be just the foundation the Warriors need to finally move into the upper half of the Western conference in a couple years. There is no reason to blow up the young core right now so stop suggesting it Koski!!

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Monta looked good and the game lived up to and even surpassed expectations. StackJack was back hitting big shots all game and the Warriors played well even without Jamal Carawford and the game was close and exciting all game even though the result was sour , LBJ pulling an MJ to end the game was sweet. Two last second shot losses in a row for the Warriors, burn. Here's Kawakami's recap, blog with Monta, SJAX, and Nellie Q&A transcript, MTII's take, Cam Inman talks LBJ for MVP and a Patty Mills mention, Ratto gives two thumbs up, and Janny Hu says Baron won't play at the Oracle tomorrow.

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