Kurt Warner, Hall of Famer?
Posted On Wednesday, January 14, 2009 at at 1/14/2009 08:14:00 PM by KoskiThe NFC Championship game will be hosted by the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium thanks in large part to the play of Kurt Warner. The question that may be bounded about in the media is, “Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame player?”
Kurt Warner is NOT a Hall of Famer.
A Hall of Fame player should play at the highest level for many seasons. Career statistics set the threshold for greatness and post season performance acts as extra credit for those players whose career stats may be not up to snuff. I’ve picked several statistical categories to help compare Warner with several contemporary Hall of Fame quarterbacks and other contemporary quarterbacks with similar statistics. I chose six categories aiming to combine seasonal statistics, premier awards and Super Bowl extra credit points to see where Warner fits in historically.
3,000+ yards passing seasons – Throwing for 3,000 yards is a nice round benchmark of a superior season for a Quarterback. If you average 3,000 yards per season for 11 seasons your peers in career passing yardage would be Hall of Famers Steve Young, Y.A. Tittle, Troy Aikman and Sonny Jurgenson.
20+ TD pass seasons –If you averaged 20 TD passes a season for 12 seasons you’d have more TD passes than Steve Young, George Blanda and Jim Kelly and be right behind Y.A. Tittle.
# of Pro Bowls – As a QB, a pro bowl selection means you were one of the top 6 quarter backs in the NFL and one of the top three in your conference. One or two could be a blip, but four or five show consistent excellence.
Awards (All Pros, MVPs, SB MVPs) – These are the awards that mean you’re the best and everybody remembers.
Super Bowl Appearances – It’s important to get to the big game, even if you don’t win. Winning is a big bonus.
Seasons with 13+ games started – This is a longevity factor. 13 games is roughly 80% of a 16 game schedule. For QBs that played in the 1987 strike shortened season I use 11 games as the marker.
Up first, the five quarterbacks most recently inducted into the Hall of Fame, in no particular order:
Aikman
3,000+ = 5
20+ TDs = 1
Pro Bowl = 6
Awards = 1 SB MVP
SB record = 3-0
Seasons w/13+ GS = 8
Elway
3,000+ = 12
20+ TDs = 6
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 1 MVP, 1 SB MVP
SB record = 2-3
Seasons w/13+ GS =13
Moon
3,000+ = 9
20+ TDs = 7
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 0
SB record = N/A
Seasons w/13+ GS = 11
Marino
3,000+ = 13
20+ TDs = 13
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 3 time All Pro, 1 MVP
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 14
Kelly
3,000+ = 8
20+ TDs = 7
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 1 All Pro
SB record = 0-4
Seasons w/13+ GS = 11
Young
3,000+ = 6
20+ TDs = 5
Pro Bowl = 7
Awards = 3 All Pro, 2 MVP, 1 SB MVP
SB record = 1-0
Seasons w/13+ GS = 7
Now let’s look at retired quarterbacks that are not in the HOF and are most likely not going to be inducted any time soon:
Gannon
3,000+ = 4
20+ TDs = 4
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 2 All Pros and 1 MVP
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 4
Esiason
3,000+ =7
20+ TDs = 5
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 1 All Pro
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 9
3,000+ =7
20+ TDs = 5
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 1 All Pro
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 9
McNair
3,000+ = 6
20+ TDs = 3
Pro Bowl = 3
Awards = 1 MVP
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS = 8
Everett
3,000+ =7
20+ TDs = 6
Pro Bowl = 1
Awards = 0
SB record = N/A
Seasons w/13+ GS =8
Bledsoe
3,000+ = 9
20+ TDs = 7
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 0
SB record = 0-1
Seasons w/13+ GS =11
Next in line to the Hall:
Favre
3,000+ = 17
20+ TDs = 14
Pro Bowl = 9
Awards = 3 All Pros, 3 MVPs
SB record = 1-1
Seasons w/13+ GS =17
Here are Kurt Warner’s totals:
Warner
3,000+ =5
20+ TDs = 5
Pro Bowl = 4
Awards = 2 All Pros, 2 MVPs and 1 SB MVP
SB record = 1-1
Seasons w/13+ GS =3
Of all the quarterbacks I’ve listed, Kurt Warner is statistically closest to Rich Gannon, Troy Aikman and possibly Steve Yonug. He’s less like Aikman because Troy had Emmitt Smith and didn’t have to pass a great deal. Aikman and Warner are similar in the Awards/SB categories, where Aikman’s three wins and one SB MVP left no doubt of his greatness. Steve Young is somewhat similar, but sitting behind Hall of Famer Joe Montana for four seasons is a special circumstance that Warner does not similarly share. As of now, Warner is a slightly better Rich Gannon. Do you consider Rich Gannon to be a Hall of Famer? What if the Raiders had beaten the Buccaneers in SBXXXVII? I say Warner still has to do more to separate himself from Gannon to get into Canton.
One category routinely brought up by Warner-for-Hall-of-Fame supporters is his outstanding Passer Rating. I don’t put much stock in that category as a Hall of Fame indicator because it’s skewed by the current offensive era. Warner is currently 4th in career Passer Rating. The Hall of Famers I listed above have the following career passer ratings ranks: Aikman - 38th, Elway – 53rd, Moon – 42nd, Marino – 16th, Kelly – 25th and Young – 1st. The Top 20 in career Passer Rating is full of contemporary quarterbacks not even close to Hall of Fame consideration: Chad Pennington – 8th, Jeff Garcia – 13th, Trent Green – 17th, Marc Bulger -19th. In fact, 17 of the top 21 QBs in career passer rating are current players.
For me, Warner is close, but has some lofty achievements to reach before I would induct him into the Hall of Fame. He has had several great seasons, but also several okay-to-sub par, injury-shortened seasons and lacks the consistent greatness reserved for the Hall of Fame.
In order to be given consideration, Warner needs to do the following:
1) Warner will have to lead the Arizona Cardinals to the Lombardi trophy and win the SB MVP
2) He needs one more season of 3,000+ yards, 20+ TDs and 13+ games started.
Some would argue anyone who leads the Cardinals to a Super Bowl trophy should immediately be enshrined into Canton, but - what can I say – I still think the Hall of Fame is reserved for greatness.
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